As global carriers assess the possibility of resuming Red Sea transits, Supal Shah, CEO of Sarjak Container Lines, says the real question is not whether the industry will return, but how quickly. The speed of that return will define whether the market experiences rate crashes or a more orderly stabilisation.

Sarjak Container Lines operates services in and out of the region, providing firsthand visibility into conditions on the ground and the evolving sentiment among vessel operators.

A Temporary Pause Does Not Ensure Lasting Stability

While reports of reduced attacks are encouraging, Shah notes that the situation remains fragile and highly conditional. Previous pauses have been short-lived and current insurance evaluations reflect continuing risk.

“From our operating experience, a temporary reduction in incidents does not yet equate to a safe and reliable passage. The region has not demonstrated the sustained stability that crews, insurers and operators require,” Shah said.

War-risk premiums remain significantly elevated. Until risk classifications change, an immediate, industry-wide return is unlikely.

If Shipping Lines Return Quickly: A Market Shock Is Possible

A rapid return to the Suez route would shorten voyage distances abruptly, putting large volumes of capacity back into the global system. According to Shah, such a sudden shift could trigger:

• A spike in surplus tonnage across major east–west trades
• Rapid downward pressure on freight and charter rates
• Increased risk of blank sailings, idling and slow steaming
• Potential schedule disruptions as networks adjust too quickly

“The industry is entering a period where supply already exceeds demand,” Shah said. “A fast return could accelerate rate erosion and destabilise markets just as they are seeking balance.”

If the Return Happens Gradually: A More Stable Pathway

In contrast, a phased return, guided by consistent security improvements, lower war-risk premiums and operational planning, would allow the system to rebalance in a controlled manner.

Such a scenario would enable operators to:

• Restore Suez routings in stages, avoiding sudden capacity shocks
• Smoothly recalibrate feeder networks and port rotations
• Protect charter markets from abrupt rate swings
• Maintain more predictable equipment flows for shippers

“A measured, well-sequenced return supports stability across the supply chain,” Shah said. “It gives carriers, ports and customers time to adapt rather than react.”

Operational Structures Cannot Shift Overnight

Shah emphasised that global networks have been reconfigured for nearly a year. Alliance loops, bunkering strategies and transshipment patterns have been redesigned around the Cape of Good Hope.

“Even if conditions improved tomorrow, the industry would still need weeks or months to unwind the emergency networks now in place,” he said. “Operators need durable certainty before making another major structural shift.”

Shah likened the situation to a crucial bridge that has been unsafe for an extended period:

“If engineers declare a damaged bridge ‘temporarily safe,’ most drivers do not rush back immediately. They wait for reinforced inspections, for weight limits to be lifted, for the structure to be proven. Otherwise, the risk of another closure outweighs the benefit of convenience. The Red Sea corridor is no different, returning too quickly could create new vulnerabilities if stability is not assured.”

Conclusion: Not “If” But “How Fast”

Shah concluded that the Red Sea’s importance to global trade ensures its eventual full reopening. The question now is the pace and the consequences that pace will carry.

“The Red Sea will reopen to large-scale traffic, of that there is no doubt. But the speed of return will determine whether the industry experiences renewed volatility or a more balanced adjustment. A fast return risks intensifying the emerging oversupply cycle. A phased return provides a healthier, more commercially sustainable path.”

“Based on what we see through our operations in the region, decisions continue to be guided by caution. Demonstrated, lasting stability will ultimately dictate the speed of the industry’s comeback.”