European natural gas prices dropped on Monday after President Donald Trump announced direct talks with Iranian officials, easing fears of a Middle East supply disruption. The relief was only partial: European storage remains well below its five-year average heading into winter.

European natural gas prices fell Monday after President Donald Trump said direct talks with Iranian officials were scheduled for the same day, prompting traders to unwind recent geopolitical risk premiums.

The Dutch front-month contract at the TTF hub, Europe’s natural gas benchmark, fell 2.2% by mid-morning to around €56.50 per megawatt-hour. Britain’s equivalent wholesale gas contract dropped 2.0% to 141.00 pence per therm.

Trump’s Iran outreach calms energy markets

Trump said he had called off a planned military strike to instead pursue an agreement aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement drove global crude oil benchmarks down by more than 5%, bringing immediate relief to European gas markets, where fears of severe LNG disruptions had dominated sentiment.

July’s rally left storage short

Monday’s pullback follows a turbulent July, when European gas prices surged more than 30% — their first monthly gain in four months and their strongest since March. Throughout the month, joint U.S. and Saudi airstrikes in Iraq, Iranian missile strikes, and fresh U.S. military action inside Iran choked off shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, threatening Qatari LNG cargoes that make up a vital part of Europe’s summer supply.

At the same time, unseasonably warm temperatures across central and southern Europe pushed up power demand for air conditioning, diverting gas toward electricity generation and away from storage injection. As a result, EU storage facilities ended July filled to roughly 55% capacity, lagging behind the five-year average and last year’s pace.

Analysts see the calm as fragile

Energy analysts warned that structural supply concerns remain far from resolved despite Monday’s relief. With storage replenishment trailing normal levels ahead of the winter heating season starting Nov. 1, European natural gas contracts are expected to stay sensitive to any setback in the U.S.-Iran negotiations.

Source: Investing.com