Gulf crude exports fall 82% from January to June; Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar record zero exports as Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained

Saudi Arabia redirected virtually all crude exports through its East-West Petroline to Yanbu on the Red Sea following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in late February, reaching a peak of approximately 4.07 million barrels per day in March. By June, those volumes had declined to approximately 2.39 million barrels per day — a 41% reduction from peak, according to Wood Mackenzie vessel tracking and cargo data.

Gulf crude exports fall 82% from January baseline

From January to June 2026, crude exports from the Middle East Gulf fell 82%, from an average of 18.8 million barrels per day across 370 cargoes to approximately 3.4 million barrels per day across 71 cargoes, according to Wood Mackenzie’s MEC tracking data.

The Strait of Hormuz carried approximately 11.4 million barrels per day of crude capacity in January and February 2026, averaging 6.3 large crude carrier movements per day according to Wood Mackenzie’s VesselTracker. Following US-Israel strikes on Iran on 28 February, traffic through the strait effectively ceased. By early July, large crude carrier movements had partially recovered to approximately 4.4 vessels per day — down 30% from pre-conflict levels — with Suezmax outbound transits at zero, transit vessel counts down 97% from pre-conflict norms, and freight rates approximately three times pre-conflict levels.

Iraq, which exported 3.77 million barrels per day in January, recorded zero exports by June. Kuwait fell from 1.19 million barrels per day to zero from April. Qatar, at 0.72 million barrels per day in January, also recorded zero from April. All three producers are entirely dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for seaborne crude access and have no pipeline bypass alternative. The UAE maintained a diminished position of approximately 0.56 million barrels per day in June, accounting for 68.6% of all non-Saudi Gulf exports in the June-July period.

Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea pivot peaks — then declines

Saudi Arabia’s response was to shift crude exports through the East-West Petroline to Yanbu, its Red Sea terminal. In March, 86.7% of Saudi liftings originated from Yanbu, representing 121.9 million barrels across 77 cargoes at an average of approximately 4.07 million barrels per day. That concentration rose to 93.6% in April, 94.3% in May and 98.6% in June, with only a single cargo of approximately one million barrels clearing the Gulf at Ju’aymah during the month.

Despite the near-total concentration of exports through Yanbu, volumes have declined steadily from the March peak. By June, Yanbu loadings had fallen to approximately 2.39 million barrels per day — a 41% reduction from the March peak and a 66% decline from Saudi Arabia’s January total export level of approximately 7.96 million barrels per day across both Gulf and Red Sea terminals.

The destination profile for Saudi Red Sea crude in June and July reflects a clear shift toward South and East Asian markets. Of recorded cargoes, 11 were directed to Ain Sukhna in Egypt for onward pipeline movement, five to Malacca, four to Karachi, three each to New Mangalore and Sikka in India, and two each to Ulsan and Yeosu in South Korea and Yokkaichi in Japan. No direct European crude deliveries were recorded from Saudi Red Sea terminals during this period.

Refined product flows from the region have continued at reduced levels. Wood Mackenzie’s Global Refined Waterborne Products tracking recorded 171 MEG-origin product cargoes in June and July, including jet fuel deliveries to Pembroke in the United Kingdom and Le Havre in France and ULSD movements to Constantza in Romania. Four product cargoes loaded at Jubail on the Saudi Gulf coast in early July, indicating limited commercial passage for smaller vessels.

“For months, the market treated Yanbu as the answer to Hormuz risk,” said Ian Solis, data analyst, Tech/Maritime-Ops for Wood Mackenzie. “The problem is that Yanbu has its own chokepoint. If Bab al-Mandeb comes under sustained disruption from a declared Houthi naval blockade, Asia stands to lose a major crude supply artery. What looked like diversification was in reality a shift from one strategic bottleneck to another.”

Source: WoodMackenzie