Golden Week hit a market already out of sync

October opened with three signals that do not usually appear together. Asia-Europe rates have fallen for twelve consecutive weeks, carriers are routing more ships through Suez, and China’s Golden Week (1 to 7 October) took factories offline while schedule reliability sat at pandemic-era lows. Drewry’s 1 October index put Shanghai to Genoa at $3,702 per 40ft, 43% below 9 July, and Shanghai to Rotterdam at $3,399, 31% below its July peak.

Service worsened as prices fell. Xeneta’s August scorecard, published on 17 September, shows 6% of Far East to Europe arrivals on time, with delays averaging 8.2 days, a level last seen in late 2021. Globally, on-time performance fell to 29% and the average delay rose from 4.2 to 5.1 days. Xeneta counted 1.1m TEU held at anchor across Ningbo, Shanghai and Yantian after the typhoons.

The cause sits in Asia. Linerlytica counts about 180 hours of terminal closures at Shanghai and Ningbo-Zhoushan between Typhoon Bavi in mid-July and Typhoon Saudel on 28 August, against 39 and 48 hours at Yangshan and Ningbo across the whole 2025 typhoon season. Berthing delays reached 10 days on 1 September and 3.92m TEU, 11.4% of the world fleet, sat at anchor. Sea-Intelligence had warned in July, when its reliability reading fell 6.1 points to 56.4%, that the backlog could cascade into the head-haul trades. August’s Far East to Europe figure is that cascade arriving. A vessel delayed in Asia reaches Europe late and bunches with the sailing behind it.

Golden Week followed Mid-Autumn Festival (25 to 27 September) with only three working days between the two. Drewry’s tracker of 11 September counted 79 of 721 planned sailings (11%) cancelled across the main East-West trades for weeks 38 to 42, and rates fell regardless. Suez container transits rose from 41 to 48 in week 38 and were 68% above the same week of 2025 in week 39. On 1 October Drewry counted five announced Asia-Europe blank sailings for the following week, down from six, which it reads as slightly more scheduled capacity, and expects rates to keep falling through the holiday. Carriers plan higher FAK rates for the second half of October, and Drewry calls their success uncertain.

Published schedules show more capacity than the network can deliver. Sea-Intelligence’s Sunday Spotlight of 24 September counts 1.50m TEU of scheduled Asia-North Europe capacity across the four Golden Week weeks, 27% above last year and 60% above the pre-pandemic average. The Golden Week week itself is 63% higher year on year and the week after 39% higher, with no blanked capacity planned for either. Its CEO, Alan Murphy, puts this down to congestion: delayed vessels “are now scheduled to depart at exactly the same time as regular sailings”, which produces 12 double sailings across the two weeks. Sea-Intelligence expects late blank sailings and rolled cargo in mid-to-late October, once the backlog clears and Chinese export volumes fall after the holiday.

The Mediterranean carries the larger relative build-up. TrasportoEuropa, citing Sea-Intelligence, reports 1.14m TEU of scheduled Asia-Mediterranean capacity over the same period, 49% above last year and 141% above the pre-pandemic average. For an importer at Genoa or La Spezia this is the mechanism to plan around. A booking can look secure on the schedule and still arrive late, be rolled to a later sailing, or land together with the vessel behind it.

For a Sogese customer the working number is the delay, not the on-time rate. Add at least eight days to Far East to Italy arrival dates until Xeneta’s September scorecard, due in October, shows Far East to Europe above 20% on time.

Europe container market: the rate correction is meeting a capacity reset

The fall since July is steep and still running. Shanghai to Genoa went from $6,463 on 9 July to $4,955 on 20 August, $4,368 on 3 September and $3,835 on 24 September. Shanghai to Rotterdam went from $4,933 to $4,401, $4,092 and $3,485 over the same dates. Rotterdam remains double the $1,735 of 25 September 2025, and its weekly fall slowed from 9% on 17 September to 4% on 24 September.

Drewry WCI, Shanghai to Genoa and Rotterdam (USD per 40ft)

Source: Drewry World Container Index; Sogese analysis

The Mediterranean fell harder because supply was added there. Sea-Intelligence shows Gemini moving 18,000 TEU ships out of Asia-North Europe and adding a net 22,402 TEU a week to Asia-Mediterranean. Genoa’s premium over Rotterdam fell from $1,530 on 9 July to $350 on 24 September; in January it was $1,076. Linerlytica recorded Gemini quoting $3,500 to $3,800 per 40ft for early September departures against $3,900 to $4,400 from rivals, and a forwarder quoted by The Loadstar reported no booking or allocation problems.

Carriers are answering with blank sailings, late as usual. In 2025 they withdrew 544,000 TEU from the Transpacific and Asia-Europe in the four weeks to 23 September, after which cuts sat roughly in line with historical levels. This year the count for weeks 38 to 41 jumped from 39 to 70 in a single week. Drewry’s judgement is that seven Asia-Europe blanks a week do not offset the Suez capacity returning.

The WCI includes the base rate, fuel and all other surcharges, and excludes destination terminal handling. The difference between a falling index and a flat landed cost therefore sits in destination terminal charges, demurrage and detention, and inland haulage. A shipper moving 100 FEU a month from Shanghai to Genoa pays about $263,000 less per month than at the 9 July rate. If Rotterdam falls to its January level of $2,763 and the Genoa premium holds at $350, Genoa would sit near $3,100.

Europe is falling while the US is rising, and a single index hides the split. Xeneta’s 24 September spot rates put Far East to North Europe at $3,945 per FEU and the Mediterranean at $4,369, down 29% and 38% since 1 July. Far East to US West Coast, at $8,255, and US East Coast, at $11,445, are up 18% and 31% over the same period. Xeneta expects the US rise to end in the first half of October and European rates to pause briefly before the fall resumes. A flat week in early October is therefore not the bottom for an importer fixing Mediterranean rates.

The 1 July levels are derived from the dollar changes Xeneta reports. Xeneta’s Mediterranean series covers the whole Far East to Mediterranean lane, so it sits above the Drewry Shanghai to Genoa rate quoted earlier. Andrea Monti made the same point on indices in the September edition: “We should avoid using a single freight index as a proxy for the entire market.”

The Suez return is a network shift, and security is its condition

Linerlytica counts 140 container ships, just over 2m TEU of capacity, that have moved from the Cape of Good Hope to Suez since May. Drewry counted 48 container transits in week 38, up from 41, against roughly 80 a week before the Red Sea crisis. On 14 September Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd moved Gemini’s AE5, AE11, AE12 and ME2 to Suez, joining AE15 and AE19. OOCL Portugal made COSCO’s first southbound transit on 16 September, and Linerlytica expects COSCO’s first westbound voyage in over two years on 4 October. ONE’s FE1 schedule shows a vessel leaving Laem Chabang on 19 October, reaching Suez on 9 November and Rotterdam on 19 November, so Premier Alliance joins in November and December.

Sea-Intelligence puts the Suez share of Asia-Europe capacity at 19% and models what a full return does: global head-haul demand in TEU-miles would fall 8.7% year on year in the first half of 2027, against 3.8% growth if only the current shift occurs. An earlier Sea-Intelligence model put the capacity released at about 2.1m TEU and warned that an abrupt switch could double Asian arrivals into Europe for two weeks.

Security sets the pace. The Houthis reached Perim island at the mouth of the Bab el-Mandeb on 11 September, and a letter reportedly sent to the EU on 10 September promised not to attack European cargo ships. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd state that further changes depend on no escalation. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on 28 September that two countries are considering sending ships against the Houthis. In the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut to container lines since early March, and Maersk charges an Emergency Freight Rate of $3,000 per 40ft dry container plus $1,000 for any Hormuz transit.

For European shippers, the immediate consequence is that falling spot rates do not necessarily translate into a straightforward improvement in service conditions. There is also an important distinction between the base freight rate and the all-in transport cost. Elevated bunker, war-risk and congestion-related charges can remain in place even as Asia-Europe spot rates decline, meaning that the reduction in the headline ocean rate may not translate proportionately into lower landed transport costs. The advantage for cargo owners is therefore likely to come first through lower freight pricing, while predictability of transit times may take longer to improve.

The more important question for the fourth quarter is what happens once the current backlog clears. If Golden Week reduces cargo volumes at the same time as Suez routing becomes more widespread and carriers maintain a relatively high level of scheduled capacity, the market could enter a more pronounced supply-demand imbalance later in October. If carriers respond earlier with additional blank sailings and redeployment, the rate correction could remain more controlled.

The European market is therefore moving beyond the initial phase of the 2026 capacity release. The next stage will be determined by how quickly carriers can align actual vessel deployment with the weaker demand environment, while recovering schedules that are still being disrupted by congestion across Asia.

Spotlight: Golden Week blanks, and when the held-back cargo lands

Carriers have published these Europe-bound cancellations. MSC blanks Jade GJ639W (Asia-Mediterranean) in week 39, Swan FW640W and Britannia QB640W in week 40, and Lion GL641W in week 41. Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk have no sailing on SE3 640W from Qingdao (28 September), SE1 641W from Ningbo (8 October, Maersk’s AE12) or NE2 641W from Shanghai (10 October). Alternatives include SE4 Berlin Maersk 640W (1 October), SE3 Mayview Maersk 641W (12 October), NE3 Maersk Cambridge 641W (6 October) and an extra Rotterdam call on NE1 Mumbai Maersk 641W, leaving Shanghai on 15 October.

Timing decides the impact. A sailing blanked in weeks 40 or 41 removes arrivals in Europe four to six weeks later, from late October to late November. ONE’s FE1 schedule shows 31 days from Laem Chabang to Rotterdam via Suez; add about a week from China, and one to two weeks if the service stays on the Cape. Cargo produced before the holiday leaves in weeks 42 and 43 on full vessels, and a late booking risks rolling to week 44. The signal to watch is the post-holiday blank count. A count that stays at or below seven a week in weeks 43 and 44 points to further rate declines. A count well above it points to a floor.

Italy market deep dive: AE11 brings Suez to the Ligurian ports

Italy is becoming one of the clearest European markets where the return of Suez routings is translating into visible changes in liner networks. The shift is particularly relevant for Ligurian ports, where several Asia-Mediterranean services are being moved back from the Cape of Good Hope to the shorter Suez route. At the same time, port-side operational constraints mean that the additional schedule capacity does not automatically translate into smoother cargo flows.

The most significant development during September was the decision by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd to return four additional Gemini services to Suez. Among them, the AE11 Asia-Mediterranean service directly serves La Spezia, Genoa and Vado Ligure. Its westbound Suez routing became effective from 19 September, with the eastbound change following from 28 September. The AE12 service also returns to Suez and connects Asia with Mediterranean ports including Koper and Rijeka.

The rotation is Shanghai, Yantian, Tanjung Pelepas, Suez, Tangier, Valencia, Barcelona, La Spezia, Genoa, Vado Ligure, so Italian importers are the last discharge and delay accumulated at earlier calls reaches them last.

For Italy, the importance of these changes goes beyond shorter transit times. A vessel returning to Suez can complete its round voyage more quickly than one routed around the Cape, potentially increasing the frequency with which the same fleet can serve the market. The same mechanism can also affect equipment positioning. Faster round trips return containers to Asian origins sooner, potentially reducing the duration for which boxes remain tied up in European or Gulf networks. If Suez utilisation expands while European export demand remains relatively weak, the resulting increase in equipment velocity could eventually add to empty-container availability in parts of Europe. This can improve the amount of effective capacity available to Italian importers and exporters even without additional vessels being deployed.

Fedespedi reports container handling in Italian ports down 4.6% in the first quarter of 2026, while the main non-Italian Mediterranean ports grew 7.1%. Trieste fell 23.6%, Savona 14.1%, Genoa 4.9% and Naples 3.5%; Venice rose 5.8%. Italian exports still grew 1.3%, and Fedespedi reads the gap as part of the cargo choosing other routes. La Spezia’s port authority reports import-export traffic up 3.9% in the first five months. Industry commentary quoted by La Nazione notes that Cape routing favours western Mediterranean ports and penalises the Adriatic. Sogese assessment: Suez routing should help the Adriatic first, because it removes that penalty.

Landside, Maersk warned that rail works through the end of September would constrain Ligurian intermodal service. The Ovada line was closed from 17 August to 14 September, limiting 40ft high-cube capacity from Liguria to all hubs, and Vado to Verona services stopped from 24 to 29 August. Weekly port data from the World Ports Organization shows vessel waiting at Genoa and La Spezia at about one to two days through the summer, so the water side is not the constraint.

Equipment is the second signal to watch. The Port of Antwerp-Bruges reports first-half 2026 throughput down 1.5% in TEU, with full export containers down 5.7%, empties up 13.7% and exports to the US down 16.5%. The port attributes the export fall to the weak position of the Western European economy. This is a Northern gateway figure. No equivalent first-half empties data for Genoa, La Spezia or Livorno has been verified, so the report does not infer an Italian equipment surplus from it. Andrea Monti named where empty containers begin to accumulate as one of three signals for October in the September edition.

For Gulf-bound exporters, Maersk’s Emergency Freight Rate is $3,000 per 40ft dry container and $3,800 per reefer, plus $1,000 per container for a Hormuz transit. Dry bookings to and from the UAE are suspended except under specific arrangements, and selected Khor Fakkan bookings are discharged at Fujairah and trucked under bond to Jebel Ali. A DP World official put overland movement at four to five times the cost of sailing through Hormuz.

There is also evidence that the shift is extending beyond the Gemini network. OOCL’s 24,188-TEU vessel OOCL Portugal returned to the Suez Canal in September on a backhaul voyage from Europe to Asia, marking the first Suez transit by an OOCL/COSCO vessel since the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb disruption led the group to suspend the route. If this becomes part of a broader network adjustment, Mediterranean gateways could see further changes in service frequency and vessel deployment as carriers reassess the economics of the two routing options.

For Italian cargo owners, therefore, the Suez return creates both an opportunity and a new planning variable. Ocean freight rates may continue to come under pressure as effective capacity increases, while service patterns could change relatively quickly as carriers adjust individual loops. At the port level, however, the ability to capture the benefit will depend on terminal productivity, inland connectivity and the resilience of feeder and transshipment networks.

Scenario Outlook: three paths for the Europe container market

Sogese’s base case is a further rate fall into North Europe and the Mediterranean through the fourth quarter, because Suez capacity is arriving faster than carriers can blank it. Our August edition set demand normalisation as the base case; the correction began in mid-July and had taken Shanghai to Rotterdam down 29% by 24 September.

Golden Week is followed by a clearer fall in cargo volumes, and carriers respond with far more blank sailings than they have programmed so far. Drewry counts five announced Asia-Europe blank sailings for next week, down from six. For this scenario to hold, that number has to rise sharply after the holiday. Sea-Intelligence already expects late blank sailings and rolled cargo in mid-to-late October, and Drewry notes carriers plan higher FAK rates for the second half of the month, though it calls their success uncertain. Withdrawal would offset part of the extra effective capacity from Suez, where transits were 68% above last year in week 39.

• ●  Asia-Europe rates stabilise near their current level, Shanghai to Rotterdam at $3,399 and Shanghai to Genoa at $3,702 per 40ft, after 12 consecutive weekly falls
• ●  Weekly Asia-Europe blank sailings rise well above Drewry’s seven a week in the weeks after Golden Week
• ●  Bunching begins to unwind, as the 12 double sailings Sea-Intelligence counted around Golden Week are cancelled

  or absorbed

• ●  Reliability improves from the August reading of 6% on time on Far East to Europe, once carriers ease pressure on individual rotations
• ●  Suez capacity is partly offset by deliberate withdrawals
• ●  Shippers gain clearer visibility on pricing and on service

  For Europe: a more balanced market after September. The adjustment would be uneven across services, but faster capacity management would reduce the risk of prolonged oversupply. For Sogese customers in Italy: the rate fall pauses, so a three-month rate fixed at today’s level would not be overpaying.

  Scenario 2: Suez capacity outpaces demand

  Services keep returning through Suez while post-holiday cargo stays soft. Drewry’s own 1 October commentary describes weak demand and Suez transits adding effective capacity. Transits rose from 41 to 48 in week 38 alone. Sea-Intelligence puts Suez at 19% of westbound Asia-Europe services and models that a full return would cut head-haul demand in TEU-miles by 8.7% year on year in the first half of 2027, against 3.8% growth if only today’s shift occurs. An earlier Sea-Intelligence estimate puts the capacity released at about 2.1m TEU.

• ●  Rates fall towards January levels: Rotterdam at $2,763 would be a further 19% fall, and Genoa near $3,100 a fall of about 16%
• ●  Blank sailings rise but stay too few to offset the added capacity
• ●  More vessels complete rotations faster as Suez use expands, and voyages shorten by one to two weeks
• ●  Carriers come under greater pressure to protect vessel utilisation
• ●  Importers gain negotiating leverage. Xeneta already shows the Mediterranean 38% below 1 July and North Europe 29% below
• ●  Reliability stays uneven even though capacity is ample

  For Europe: lower freight costs alongside continued operational uncertainty. For Sogese customers in Italy: Sea-Intelligence reports 1.14m TEU of scheduled Asia-Mediterranean capacity around Golden Week, 49% above last year, so this lane has the most room to fall. Index-linked or three-month pricing would capture the fall, and twelve-month fixed rates would not.

Golden Week reduces cargo, but congestion and vessel delays stop the network turning published capacity into usable capacity. Xeneta’s August scorecard has 6% of Far East to Europe arrivals on time, with delays of 8.2 days, and 1.1m TEU held at anchor at Ningbo, Shanghai and Yantian. Linerlytica counted over 4m TEU of containership capacity absorbed by congestion on 8 September, and Drewry flags continuing uncertainty over Houthi activity and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

• ●  Rates keep softening despite weak reliability. Asia-Europe has fallen 12 weeks running while Far East to Europe on-time performance sat at 6%
• ●  Bunching stays visible, with 12 double sailings across the two Golden Week weeks
• ●  Delayed sailings keep distorting published capacity, with scheduled Asia-North Europe capacity 63% above last

  year in the Golden Week week and 39% in the week after

• ●  Blank sailings are partly offset by vessels already delayed in the network
• ●  Port and terminal congestion remains a constraint on cargo flows
• ●  Shippers continue to face uncertainty over actual departure and arrival times

  For Europe: the gap between freight pricing and service performance persists. For Sogese customers in Italy: add at least eight days to Far East to Italy arrival dates until Xeneta’s September scorecard shows Far East to Europe above 20% on time.

  Indicators to watch

  Four things decide which path the market takes in the fourth quarter. The first is Drewry’s Thursday WCI, with its Suez count and next-week blank sailings. The second is Sea-Intelligence’s tracking of blanks after Golden Week. The third is Xeneta’s September scorecard, with 20% on time as the line. The fourth is whether the second-half-October FAK increases stick.