Fitch Ratings expects the withdrawal of hull war risk marine insurance coverage in the Persian Gulf to be credit negative for U.S. property casualty insurance specialists that are heavily reliant on Gulf transit, with neutral implications for well-diversified, global (re)insurers with modest exposure. The rating impact over the next 12 months hinges on loss emergence and transit disruption duration, with earnings volatility and capital adequacy the key credit differentiators.

Specialist underwriters with double-digit Gulf premium concentrations, where volume losses may offset rate gains, face heightened earnings volatility, reserve uncertainty and potential capital headwinds. The global (re)insurance industry has meaningful exposure, with Skytek estimating $22.5 billion of vessel value at risk the in Persian Gulf, given potential strike or seizure losses from high-value oil tankers and cruise ships. We estimate industry losses from the current crisis could exceed $5 billion, a plausible scenario if multiple large vessels sustain total losses. Globally diversified multiline (re)insurers with sub-5% marine war concentrations and strong capital positions face minimal rating pressure from probable losses given existing capital buffers.

The immediate risk to (re)insurers is physical destruction or seizure of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil supply and liquified natural gas passes, as well as roughly 30% of globally traded nitrogen fertilizer. Limited ship traffic has moved through the region since the conflict began, reducing near-term loss frequency but raising exposure concentration. If the effective closure extends beyond six months, trapped vessels create compounding risk. Under standard policy terms, insurers face total loss claims on seized ships not released within 12 months.

Marine war premium pricing has risen sharply, and availability has contracted significantly, as many insurers have cancelled hull war risk policies and ceased underwriting new business in the Persian Gulf since the conflict escalated this month. However, abundant reinsurance capacity entering this year could limit the ultimate rate spike. Marine war premiums will remain elevated through year-end 2026, supporting near-term underwriting margins for insurers maintaining selective gulf exposure, but reduced volumes and uncertain government policy evolution limit the net benefit.

The U.S. government, through the International Development Finance Corporation, has committed up to $20 billion of reinsurance cover on a rolling basis for hull, machinery war risk and cargo insurance in the Gulf region. This intervention is credit supportive in capping extreme tail losses for participating carriers. However, subsidized government capacity could displace private market underwriting post-crisis, creating prolonged volume and pricing pressure for marine specialists once the immediate risk subsides.

Source: Fitch Ratings