As the ice melts in the Arctic, a new and significantly shorter shipping route between Europe and Asia could become accessible. This prospect has long attracted the attention of researchers, governments and shipping companies around the world. Some see major opportunities, while others see risks to security, the climate and the environment.

But what is the actual situation today? A new analysis by Danish Shipping, based on the latest international data, takes a closer look.

The analysis shows that 2025 was a record year for transit traffic along the Northern Sea Route (NSR), with 103 recorded transit voyages. The number of transits increased by around 6 per cent compared with 2024, while the volume of cargo transported rose by around 3 per cent.

“We are seeing increasing maritime activity along the Northeast Passage. But in terms of volume, it remains a very long way from matching the major international shipping routes. And when you also consider that the vast majority of ship traffic is to or from Russian ports, the conclusion is that the Northeast Passage has very limited relevance to international shipping today and for the foreseeable future,” says Jacob K. Clasen, Deputy CEO of Danish Shipping.

Although activity on the NSR is increasing, the level remains modest compared with established global trade routes. By way of comparison, more than 2,000 deep-sea cargo vessels pass the Cape of Good Hope every month. This means that the record level of traffic on the NSR in 2025 corresponds to approximately a day and a half of traffic around the Cape of Good Hope.

Traffic in 2025 was dominated by Russian-Chinese commodity flows involving crude oil, oil products, coal and other bulk cargo. The vessels sailed almost exclusively to Russian and Chinese ports. A number of the transit voyages were also ballast voyages without cargo.