Opec unveiled its projections for 2027 today, showing a slight slowdown in global oil demand growth.

In its first Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) this year, Opec said oil demand would grow by 1.34mn b/d to 107.86mn b/d in 2027, led by India, China and other Asian countries.

This is slightly below its growth forecast for 2026, which sees oil consumption increasing by 1.38mn b/d to 106.52mn b/d — unchanged from its previous report.

Opec said oil demand growth in 2027 would be primarily driven by rising transportation fuel consumption in Asia, including air travel, trucking and personal mobility.

Opec’s latest report shows oil demand in 2025 grew by just over 1.3mn b/d to 105.14mn b/d. The group’s first 2025 oil demand forecast — released in January 2024 — saw consumption rising by 1.85mn b/d.

The forecasts would see oil demand growing relatively steadily at 1.3mn-1.4mn b/d between 2025 and 2027.

On supply, the group sees non-Opec+ supply slowing slightly in 2027 to 610,000 b/d, compared with 630,000 b/d in 2026.

Most of the supply increases will be led by Brazil, Canada, Qatar and Argentina. The US, which has driven much of the world’s rising oil supply over the past decade, is seen adding just 30,000 b/d in 2027, down from a forecast 100,000 b/d in 2026.

Opec+ crude output — including Mexico — fell by 238,000 b/d to 43.831mn b/d in December 2025, based on an average of secondary sources including Argus. Opec estimates the call on Opec+ crude at 43mn b/d in 2026 and 43.6mn b/d in 2027.

Source: Argus by Aydin Calik