Do not expect the EU-US tariff agreement or US-China negotiations in Stockholm this week over a new trade deal to breathe life into ocean container shipping demand or halt the dramatic decline in freight rates in 2025, analysts warn.

Latest data from Xeneta – the ocean and air freight intelligence platform – shows average spot rates from China to the US West Coast are down 59% since 1 June at USD 2 268 per FEU (40ft container). Rates have also plummeted into the US East Coast, down 43% to USD 3 796 per FEU in the same period.

Average spot rates from North Europe to US East Coast are USD 2 000 per FEU, down a gentler 5% since 1 June, but a more considerable 25% compared to 1 January.

Emily Stausbøll, Xeneta Senior Shipping Analyst, said: “US trade deals are not a magic bullet and we should not expect them to breathe new life into the subdued ocean shipping market.

“A 15% tariff on imports from the EU is not good news for shippers – it is just news that isn’t as bad as it could have been.

“We can also be sure US-China negotiations in Stockholm will not bring import costs back to where they were before Trump introduced the sweeping reciprocal tariffs in April.

“Against a backdrop of subdued demand, spot rates on US trades have plummeted and are likely to fall further, although carriers have managed to slow the decline in recent weeks by removing capacity.

“Any savings made through falling rates will pale in comparison to the financial impact of the tariffs, so even the most optimistic shippers must face up to the reality of the US trade policy.”

Stausbøll also highlighted the challenge facing carriers due to the impact of tariffs on ocean container shipping demand into the US.

She said: “Shippers frontloaded imports into the US during April and May following the temporary lowering of tariffs – that cargo rush is now over and freight rates are falling hard, particularly on the fronthaul trades from the Far East.

“Carriers are already withholding capacity on US trades to keep freight rates from falling further, but they may be fighting a losing battle due to the significant overcapacity in the ocean container global fleet.

“Carriers have reported massive profits in recent years in the wake of supply chain turmoil, but unless they can halt the dramatic decline in freight rates, those days may be over.”