Crude Oil Price Movements

In June, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value increased by $6.11 month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $69.73/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $5.79, m-o-m, to average $69.80/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract increased by $6.39, m-o-m, to average $67.33/b. The GME Oman frontmonth contract increased by $5.63, m-o-m, to average $69.49/b. Meanwhile, the ICE Brent-NYMEX WTI firstmonth spread contracted by 60¢, m-o-m, to average $2.47/b. The market structure for all major crude
benchmarks, ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI, and GME Oman, steepened compared to the previous month and moved into stronger backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers sharply raised their bullish positions amid substantial financial flows activities into the ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI futures contracts.

World Economy

The global economy maintained its stable growth trajectory, supported by the healthy growth seen in 1H25. The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 2.9% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026. The US economic growth forecasts remain at 1.7% for 2025 and 2.1% for 2026. Japan’s economic forecasts remain at 1.0% for 2025 and 0.9% for 2026. Eurozone economic growth forecasts remain at 1.0% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026. China’s economic growth forecasts remain at 4.6% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026. India’s economic growth forecasts remain at 6.5% for both 2025 and 2026. Brazil’s economic growth forecasts remain at 2.3% for 2025 and 2.5% for 2026. Russia’s economic growth forecasts remain at 1.8% for 2025 and 1.5% for 2026.

World Oil Demand

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains at 1.3 mb/d, year-on-year (y-o-y), unchanged from last month’s assessment. Some minor adjustments were made, mainly due to actual data for 1Q25 and 2Q25. In the OECD, oil demand is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d in 2025, while non-OECD demand is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d in 2025. In 2026, global oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessments. The OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.

World Oil Supply

Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.8 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. The non-DoC liquids production growth forecast for 2026 is also unchanged at 0.7 mb/d, with the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina as the main growth drivers. Meanwhile, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, averaging 8.6 mb/d, followed by a similar increase of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average 8.8 mb/d. Crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC increased by 349 tb/d in June, m-o-m, to average about 41.56 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.

Product Markets and Refining Operations

In June, refinery margins declined in the Atlantic Basin, amid the end of the heavy refinery maintenance season and stronger product output. Additionally, a rise in feedstock prices in June contributed to pressure on refining economics. This downturn was mostly driven by gasoline and residual fuel. In Singapore, the strength associated with middle distillates, amid concerns about supply disruptions due to geopolitical factors, outweighed the weakness witnessed at the top and bottom sections of the barrel due to ample availability, leading to a slight improvement in Southeast Asian refining economics. Global refinery intake in June increased by 2.1 mb/d, m-o-m, to an average of 82.7 mb/d.

Tanker Market

Dirty tanker spot freight rates continued to see mixed movements in June. VLCC rates were volatile over the month due to geopolitical developments, although the mid-month spike in rates was matched by a decline near the end of the month, resulting in VLCC rates remaining broadly flat in monthly average. On the Middle East-toEast route, VLCC spot freight rates were unchanged, m-o-m. Suezmax rates declined on average in June, despite geopolitical-driven volatility, as activities remained sluggish. Spot rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route fell by 3%, m-o-m. Aframax rates showed slight gains, supported by improving activities East of Suez at
the end of the month. In the clean tanker market, spot rates were also mixed. East of Suez rates rose by 11%, m-o-m, driven by geopolitical concerns mid-month and then a pick-up in activities by month’s end. Sluggish activities weighed on West of Suez clean rates, which declined by 8%, m-o-m.

Crude and Refined Product Trade

In June, US crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m, averaging 6.1 mb/d. US crude exports declined for the third month in a row to average 3.6 mb/d. Product imports into the US declined by 4%, m-o-m, to average 1.7 mb/d, while US product exports rose by close to 2%, m-o-m, to average just under 7 mb/d. Preliminary estimates indicate that OECD Europe’s crude imports picked up, m-o-m, in May, ahead of the summer season. Product imports into OECD Europe increased by 11%, m-o-m, led by fuel oil, while product exports rose by 11%, with gains across all major products except LPG. Japan’s crude imports declined, m-o-m, in May, but remained well above last year’s level at 2.4 mb/d. Japan’s product imports recovered slightly following the sharp decline in the previous month, amid a rebound in LPG inflows. Product exports fell, driven lower by gasoil and gasoline outflows. In China, crude imports dropped further to an average of 11.0 mb/d in May, with inflows keeping in line with the five-year average. Product imports remained broadly flat but were still well above the five-year average, while China’s product exports declined seasonally. India’s crude imports in May remained above 5 mb/d for the fifth month in a row, despite a decline of 2%, m-o-m. Product imports recovered m-o-m, averaging 1.2 mb/d, with the increase driven primarily by fuel oil. Product exports surged by nearly 34%, m-o-m, to average 1.4 mb/d, as diesel and gasoline exports rebounded.

Commercial Stock Movements

Preliminary data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories stood at 2,771 mb in May, representing a m-o-m increase of 34.5 mb. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 14.3 mb and 20.1 mb, m-o-m, respectively. Compared to the 2015–2019 average, OECD commercial oil stocks were 184 mb lower. OECD commercial crude stocks stood at 1,358 mb, which is 127 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Total OECD product stocks stood at 1,413 mb, or 57 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 0.1 days, m-o-m, to 59.8 days in May, which is 2.2 days below the 2015–2019 average.

Balance of Supply and Demand

Demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month, reaching 42.5 mb/d in 2025. This is mainly due to an upward revision in DoC NGLs historical baseline. However, the growth in demand for DoC crude remains unchanged from last month at 0.4 mb/d. Similarly, the demand for DoC crude in 2026 is also revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month, given the updated DoC NGLs baseline number, reaching 42.9 mb/d, or about
0.4 mb/d higher than the 2025 projection, which is the same as last month’s assessment.

Source: OPEC