Weekly Dry Market Monitor by Signal Ocean

July 1, 2025

Spot Rates | Supply-Demand Trends | Port Congestion Overview

Chart of the Week: Spotlight on Indonesian Thermal Coal Shipments

https://go.signalocean.com/e/983831/amic-drybulkflows-downloadable/2r7gxx/506082552/h/N4dBdyaZrscjTKJA9_gE0w9NSEzBfvpFkWbpxAQXRgM

This week’s Market Monitor highlights a notable shift in thermal coal trade flows, particularly in the evolving import strategies of China and India. According to the latest dry bulk flow data, Indonesia continues to account for 48% of global thermal coal exports, with Taboneo and Muara Berau remaining the most active origin terminals. However, Chinese and Indian buyers are increasingly turning to higher-grade coal alternatives from countries such as Australia and Russia. This trend appears to be mainly driven by the current downturn in global coal prices, which has made energy-dense coal from non-Indonesian sources more cost-competitive.

World Bank data confirms that Australia’s Newcastle 6,300 kcal/kg FOB coal price averaged $104.41/t in May 2025, up approximately 6% from $98.61 in April, but down about 26.5% compared to $142.01 in May 2024. Meanwhile, as early as March, trends indicated that railborne coal imports from Mongolia and Russia were gaining share, as improved infrastructure made land transport cheaper than seaborne alternatives.

China continues to dominate, receiving 42% of Indonesian coal shipments, followed by India at 19%. However, both nations are showing a clear shift toward sourcing coal with higher calorific values. At the same time, Chinese seaborne coal imports are being gradually displaced by rising domestic coal production, which is a trend reinforced by policy support and the continued approval of new coal-fired power plants.

In Q1 2025, China approved 11.3 GW of new coal plant capacity, surpassing the 10.3 GW approved in the entire first half of 2024, signaling continued support for domestic coal infrastructure. In early June, the China Coal Transportation & Distribution Association projected that coal imports could decline by 50–100 million tonnes in 2025, stemming from significantly higher domestic production and state directives to reduce imports and stockpile local coal.

For more information on this week’s freight, supply, and demand shipping trends, see the analysis sections below. You can also log in to our Newsroom page under Insights & News to stay updated with the latest reports.

Freight Market, Supply and Demand

SECTION 1/ Freight Rates ($/t)

‘The Big Picture’ – Capesize Weaker

Remark: Freight market price trends depicted are based on Signal Ocean Assessments. For real-time updates and historical comparisons, access our Freight Market Analytics dashboard here: Signal Ocean Freight Market Analytics.

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) softened toward the end of June, primarily due to oversupply concerns in the Capesize segment. While the Atlantic basin experienced a modest tightening in tonnage availability, the Pacific market continued to face a surplus of vessel capacity relative to cargo demand.

Capesize vessel freight rates on the Brazil–North China route fell by 6% week-on-week, settling at around $21.8 per tonne. A similar downward pattern is visible on the Western Australia–China route, where rates declined by 12% over the same period. Potential drivers of downward pressure include seasonal weakness in Chinese steel mill activity. Additionally, cargo availability increased in May following the post-cyclone recovery. With overall supply, including waiting vessels, expected to remain ample, the C5 route is likely to stay oversupplied in the near term.

https://go.signalocean.com/e/983831/ic-capes-insights-downloadable/2r7gyf/506082552/h/N4dBdyaZrscjTKJA9_gE0w9NSEzBfvpFkWbpxAQXRgM

Panamax – ECSA / Far East Weaker

Panamax vessel freight rates from the ECSA to the Far East have dropped to $32 per tonne, though they remain above the late-May low of $29 per tonne. This weakening trend is expected to persist, as the number of Panamax ballasters heading to the ECSA holds above 260, while daily loading volumes in the region are trending downward, falling below 0.8 million metric tons.

https://go.signalocean.com/e/983831/-panamax-insights-downloadable/2r7gyj/506082552/h/N4dBdyaZrscjTKJA9_gE0w9NSEzBfvpFkWbpxAQXRgM

SUPRAMAX – USG / Far East Weaker

Supramax vessel freight rates from the US Gulf (USG) to the Far East have weakened by 7%, falling to $35 per tonne. Meanwhile, ECSA–Far East rates are holding around $30 per tonne, reflecting a 2% weekly decline. The softening trend in the ECSA market does not appear to be driven by an increase in ballasters, as the 7-day moving average has declined to approximately 120 vessels, about 20 fewer than at the end of May. On the demand side, signals remain mixed. A recent spike has been observed in daily cargo volumes loaded in the Panamax segment, whereas Supramax volumes are trending downward, with the latest figures showing daily loadings of less than 0.3 million metric tonnes.

https://go.signalocean.com/e/983831/supramax-insights-downloadable/2r7gym/506082552/h/N4dBdyaZrscjTKJA9_gE0w9NSEzBfvpFkWbpxAQXRgM

SECTION 2/ SUPPLY

Capesize Ballasters Overview (# Vessel Count) Mixed

Capesize ballasters view: Available vessels in the North Atlantic have shown a slight tightening before the end of the month. In the Pacific, ballast vessel counts have climbed, exceeding 150 in the Indian Ocean/South Africa region and reaching a recent high of 139 in the Far East/NOPAC.

Panamax Ballasters Overview (# Vessel Count) Increasing

Panamax ballasters view: The Pacific market remains heavily oversupplied in the Panamax sector, with ballast vessel counts peaking nearly at 270 in the Indian Ocean/South Africa region and 236 in Australasia.

Supramax Ballasters Overview Increasing

Supramax ballasters view: The Pacific market, specifically for the Far East/NOPAC and Australasia routes, is experiencing oversupply. This is evidenced by over 200 vessels currently ballasting in the Far East/NOPAC. In the Atlantic, the number of ballasting vessels is also significant, exceeding 90 in the North Atlantic.

Handysize Ballasters Overview Increasing

Handysize ballasters: Significant weekly increases in vessel oversupply were observed across both the Pacific and North Atlantic basins. The Pacific basin faced a more substantial burden, with the Far East/North Pacific region reaching approximately 180 vessels and Australasia at 127. The North Atlantic’s oversupply almost surpassed 250 ballasters.

SECTION 3/ DEMAND (COAL)
Tonne Days Decreasing

Two weeks ago, our weekly market monitor highlighted the growth in iron ore tonne-days, which underpinned a stronger performance in the Baltic Capesize Index. Conversely, the coal segment faces pressure; Panamax and Supramax earnings are challenged by a continuous decline in tonne-day growth, consistently staying below the levels seen in the past two years.

SECTION 4/ WAYPOINTS

Strait of Hormuz

https://go.signalocean.com/e/983831/dry-dynamic-waypoints-dry/2r7gyq/506082552/h/N4dBdyaZrscjTKJA9_gE0w9NSEzBfvpFkWbpxAQXRgM

Following the peaceful agreement between Iran and Israel, maritime activity through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to remain normalized. However, a degree of risk persists for shipowners due to ongoing security concerns in the region. Electronic interference continues to be a key issue affecting vessels and their operators. While commercial traffic remains steady, we are closely monitoring the situation, with a particular focus on vessel count and overall transit patterns.

Source: Signal Ocean