Estimate most bearish so far on virus impact

Lockdowns still escalating to contain virus’ spread

Global oil demand could collapse by over 3 million b/d this year due to growing social and economic lockdown measures aimed at slowing the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics.

World oil demand could fall by over 12 million b/d on the year in April and May and result in annualized fall of as much as 3.2 million b/d in 2020, the head of S&P Global Platts Analytics Chris Midgley said.

The estimate for the potential demand impact from coronavirus is one of the most bearish by forecasters to date. It also marks a major revision to S&P Global Analytics’ March 11 estimate of a 960,000 b/d contraction in oil demand this year due to coronavirus.

Since then, moves by countries to further shut schools and other public venues while imposing tougher travel restrictions have escalated sharply.

US gasoline demand alone could fall by 2 million b/d in the second quarter, in an “extreme scenario” where the pandemic temporarily shutters 34% of workplaces and 50% of non-essential travel miles, according to London-based consultants Thunder Said Energy.

Norway-based consultant Rystad Energy on Wednesday estimated that global oil demand will contract by 2.8 million b/d this year with jet fuel hit the hardest. Rystad estimated that jet fuel demand would fall by 12% year on year, or at least 800,000 b/d from last year’s average of about 7.2 million b/d.

The International Energy Agency on Match 9 forecast a contraction in global demand for 2020 of 90,000 b/d — which would be the first shrinkage in consumption since the financial crisis in 2009.

Source: Platts