As part of its water management strategy, the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) will implement draft reductions at the Neopanamax locks in the coming weeks as the El Nino phenomenon continues to develop.

Effective 24 July, the maximum authorized draft for vessels transiting the Neopanamax locks will be 14.94 meters (49 feet).

The PCA previously lowered the maximum authorized draft to 15.09 meters (49.5 feet).

Then, effective 15 August, the maximum authorized draft will be lowered to 14.78 meters.

The PCA will continue to closely monitor water levels in Gatun Lake, the freshwater reservoir that feeds the canal locks, and hydrological projections and will announce additional adjustments as necessary.

PREPARING FOR EL NINO

The PCA has been preparing for various scenarios surrounding El Nino to try and mitigate its effects.

El Nino – which is a recurring climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-normal water in the eastern and central tropical Pacific – tends to result in increased vertical wind shear, which is unfavorable for Atlantic hurricane formation and intensification, and is important for predictions during hurricane season.

El Ninos can lead to reduced rainfall around Panama, which in the past has contributed to lower water levels in Gatun Lake.

The latest forecast from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows a 98% probability of an El Nino forming near the end of the year.

The PCA is also looking at steps it can take in 2027 because history indicates that the most pronounced impacts of moderate or strong El Nino events tend to be reflected more clearly in the subsequent year, as was the pattern in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, 2015-2016 and 2023-2024.

The US is the largest user of the canal.

In 2024, 52% of transits through the canal had ports of origin or destinations in the US. More than 76% of the cargo that transited the canal had the US as its origin or destination.

The Panama Canal remains the primary route for trade between Asia and the US Gulf and East Coast.

Source: ICIS by Adam Yanelli