Slightly higher rates of growth in trade and lower levels of box productivity are the key drivers of Drewry’s revised projections. The latter has worsened this year as a consequence of ongoing draught restrictions in the Panama Canal and ocean carriers rerouting ships from Suez Canal transits to round the Cape of Good Hope sailings, as a result of attacks on ships in the Red Sea by Houthi rebels.
With containers spending longer on ships and taking more time to complete their journeys, sales into the secondary market have slowed and the stock of empty containers, especially in depots and factory yards in China, have been largely eroded.
Once again, the liner shipping industry’s vulnerabilities and those of its customers have been exposed by geopolitical events and operational constraints, this time on two of its main arteries. In January, the number of containership transits around the Cape had risen to 605, up from 164 a year ago, while the number of voyages through the Suez Canal over the same period declined to 62 compared to 328 in January 2023, according to Drewry’s AIS analytics. Voyage delays arising from a Cape diversion range from 10 days for vessels heading to Northern European ports such as Rotterdam, to 15 days for the Mediterranean ports such as Genoa.
In the case of the Panama Canal, which mainly affects the trade between Asia and the US East Coast, ocean carriers are using various options, including discharge at US West Coast ports and intermodal services to the East Coast, land-bridging via the Panama Canal railway, and sailings from Asia via the Cape of Good Hope. While the impact of disruption in the Panama Canal is not proving to be as significant as that of the Suez Canal, it is estimated that between six-and-seven million teu have been affected by the two incidents.
At the same time, in October and November 2023 factories in China cut prices for new containers as they sought orders for the final weeks of what had proved to be a very challenging year for manufacturers. With prices for 20ft containers falling to about US$1,850 in some weeks, orders increased strongly with ocean carriers the main buyers. The availability of capacity in the factories means these containers also being delivered very quickly.
On the trading front, Drewry expects 2024 to be significantly stronger than 2023 with global container handling throughput forecast to increase by 2.3%. This compares with minimal growth in 2023. Furthermore, Drewry projects that ocean carrier’s box-to-slot ratios will increase in the short term, as buffer stocks of equipment are increased to cope with the current supply chain challenges.
Source: Drewry
