Yemen’s Houthi movement said that it will target all ships heading to Israel, regardless of their nationality and warned all international shipping companies against dealing with Israeli ports.

In recent weeks, the Houthis have attacked and seized several Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea and its Bab al-Mandab Strait, a sea lane through which much of the world’s oil is shipped.

It is expected that such attacks will continue, subject to any deterrent response from the US, whose warships might also have been targeted with drones, and pressure applied on the Houthis behind the scenes, either through Saudi Arabia or other intermediaries, or a deal involving Iran.

Interim transit advice for the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden was published by BIMCO, ICS and other bodies in November 2023 and remains in place. The advice notes the following:

1. Threats from “airborne activities are probably greater during daylight hours where targets are more easily identified and attacked/boarded, but the challenge of visually detecting and classifying small contacts at night such as a water-borne improvised explosive devices (WBIED) remain” – hence, the exposure to the threat is greater in daylight hours however, an attack during the hours of darkness cannot be excluded.
2. Ships planning a passage through the Southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden should conduct a thorough ship and voyage specific threat and risk assessment, considering any additional advice from their flag state.
3. Houthi forces have laid mines to protect port entries for ports under their control, and on rare occasion, such mines have become detached from their tether and have drifted into the traffic lanes.

There is also some potential for collateral damage due to vessels being in proximity to a missile/drone attack against another target or due to mistaken targeting.

Risk Intelligence released a client briefing report on 8 December addressing the viable threats to shipping, which reads as follows:

The seizure by the Houthis has achieved significant attention and highlights their opposition to Israeli actions in Gaza. The possibility of future vessel seizures hinges on several factors:

• Whether the Houthis obtain any concessions through negotiations, potentially involving relevant parties from the Middle Eastern region.
• The Houthis’ ability to effectively manage the seized vessel, including the well-being and repatriation of the crew, as well as ensuring its security in Hudaydah.
• Potential responses from Israel or an increase in the presence of naval forces in the area.
• Behind-the-scenes pressure exerted on the Houthis through intermediaries or potential agreements with certain Middle East states.

It is therefore difficult to predict how this situation will play out. Based on our current assessment of the situation, Risk Intelligence sees the following threat levels.

Vessel type	Threat type	Threat level
Vessels specifically linked to Israel through ownership	Seizure and detention; limited kinetic attack such as a drone strike	HIGH
Vessels engaged in trading directly with Israeli ports	Seizure and detention; protests and harassment	ELEVATED
Vessels in transit without any involvement in Israeli trading	Potential proximity to the above threats	MODERATE

Given the ongoing volatility in Israel, it is advisable for shipowners, operators, and Masters engaged in trade with Israeli ports to thoroughly evaluate the risks associated with each port call on an individual basis. Additionally, the following measures are recommended:

• Regularly consult local sources for up-to-date information from vessel agents, local authorities and Skuld’s correspondent, to obtain the most current and reliable security information available.
• Abide by the guidance provided by the flag administrations and port authorities regarding the relevant ISPS security levels.
• Review and implement pertinent security and contingency plans as appropriate – enhance Best Management Practices.
• Ensure that crewmembers aboard vessels heading towards Israel and transiting the Red Sea are well-briefed and trained about any imminent security threats in the region.
• Ships with Private Maritime Security Teams onboard are advised not to escalate Rules for the Use of Force (RUF).

Israel is included in the Joint War Committee’s (JWC) Listed Areas for Hull War, Piracy, Terrorism and Related Perils. As such it is also recommend confer with the vessel’s war insurer in advance of arrival at any Israeli port or transit within the Red Sea.

Reference can be made to the Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea article published on 6 December, which answers some of the trade-related and contractual questions shipowners might have during this turbulent time.

Source: Skuld