The ongoing AI boom has prompted the Hong Kong Trade Development Council to raise its 2026 export growth forecast again, to 42-47%, as Hong Kong reinforces its position as a high-value trading and logistics hub.

Major export markets include the Chinese Mainland, ASEAN and the US, reflecting widespread investment in AI-related products and infrastructure.

“Demand for semiconductors, memory chips, computer components, telecommunications equipment and other advanced electronics expanded much faster than expected, providing substantial support to Hong Kong’s exports,” noted HKTDC’s Director of Research, Bruce Pang.

In June, the HKTDC had projected more than 20% export growth for 2026, up from an earlier 8-9% forecast. The latest upgrade, on the back of a sustained global appetite for AI, also underscores the central role that electronics plays in Hong Kong’s trade.

For the first eight months of 2026, Hong Kong’s electronics exports – including lower-value items as well as semiconductors and other next-generation technologies – rose by 52.8% year-on-year, significantly outpacing other sectors.

“Exports of a broad range of conventional electronic parts and components have continued to perform strongly,” observed Wing Chu, HKTDC’s Deputy Director of Research. “Regional manufacturing networks spanning the Chinese Mainland and ASEAN economies remain highly active, supporting vigorous trade flows throughout Asia.”

Resilient demand

Looking ahead, the HKTDC expects Hong Kong’s exports to maintain solid momentum through the remainder of 2026, supported by demand for technology products as well as robust manufacturing and trade activity across the Chinese Mainland, ASEAN and other key markets.

The latest HKTDC Export Confidence Index, covering the third quarter of the year, indicates that exporter sentiment has stayed broadly positive despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. The Current Performance Index stood at 51.8, while the Expectation Index registered 51.3, both remaining above the neutral 50-point threshold.

Exporters continue to face a challenging external environment that includes geopolitical tensions, volatility in energy and commodity markets, and rising protectionist measures in certain economies.

Nonetheless, international consumption has been relatively resilient in recent months, pointed out Kenneth Lee, HKTDC’s Section Head of Special Project & Business Advisory. This has helped sustain demand for a broad range of consumer products.

“As a result, sectors such as clothing, jewellery and watches and clocks have continued to deliver stable export performance alongside the strong growth seen in technology-related industries,” Mr Lee stated.

Hong Kong’s exports to the United States have also remained remarkably robust, rising 63.4% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2026.

A substantial share of these exports consists of products covered by tariff exemption arrangements, particularly in the technology and electronics sectors. At the same time, extended policy dialogue between the two sides has helped ease bilateral trade tensions, Mr Pang highlighted.

“The September Xi-Trump meeting and extension of the trade truce until January 2027, coupled with the US$30 billion Reciprocal Tariff Reduction Arrangement, provide a welcome period of stability, reducing the risk of further tariff escalation in the coming months,” HKTDC’s Director of Research said.

A changing trade profile

Beyond supporting near-term growth, the AI boom is also reshaping the structure of Hong Kong’s trade.

The increased prominence of high-value exports is driving greater reliance on air cargo for overseas shipments, supported by land transport links that connect the city with manufacturing centres in the Chinese Mainland.

Air freight accounts for an ever-growing share of Hong Kong’s external merchandise trade by value, rising from 20.2% in 1995 to 45.4% in 2025, according to data from the Census and Statistics Department and HKTDC Research.

The city’s trading role has expanded beyond traditional services in tandem, encompassing supply chain management, cross‑border logistics and high‑end distribution.

High‑tech products typically have short product lifecycles, rapid upgrade cycles and stringent time‑to‑market requirements, heightening the importance of logistics efficiency and delivery speed.

These trends align with the city’s first Five-Year Plan, unveiled earlier this month, which includes measures to strengthen Hong Kong’s status as an international trade centre through higher-value trade and supply-chain services.

HKTDC Research’s in-depth breakdown and analysis of its latest export forecast can be read in full here.