QatarEnergy’s latest cancellations run into early November. Buyers in Europe and Asia are finding replacement cargoes, switching to other fuels or using less gas, while no one knows when LNG shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal.

QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries to customers in Europe and Asia as regular LNG shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely halted.

Italian utility Edison said QatarEnergy would be unable to deliver another five LNG cargoes scheduled between late September and early November.

That brings the number of cargoes affected under Edison’s contract since April to 29, representing around 3.8 billion cubic metres of natural gas.

Edison said it had already replaced 21 of those cargoes, equivalent to about 2 billion cubic metres, and could continue meeting its commitments to customers.

QatarEnergy has reportedly told buyers in Pakistan that cancellations will continue into October, while supplies to Bangladesh will remain affected beyond September. Other European buyers have also begun receiving similar notices.

QatarEnergy first declared force majeure in March and has since renewed it month by month as the disruption has lasted longer than buyers initially expected.

“Absent any political resolution or one of the main stakeholders blinking first, we are still likely to be there for quite some time,” said Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a global research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.

She said QatarEnergy was extending force majeure month by month because it still had no reliable date for normal exports to resume.

QatarEnergy did not respond to Euronews’ request for comment.

How are buyers replacing Qatari LNG?

The disruption has removed most Qatari LNG from the global market. Qatar exported only 18 cargoes during the first six months of the war, compared with 509 over the same period a year earlier, according to ICIS data.

The decline is estimated to have cost Qatar around $24 billion (€20.7 billion) in lost gas sales.

Other exporters have filled part of the gap. Corbeau said more LNG had come from the United States and Canada, including from facilities that started production during the past year. Output has also been stronger in Nigeria and Malaysia.

But replacement supplies have not covered the entire shortfall. Some Asian markets have cut consumption or switched to other fuels, while Europe has used more gas from storage rather than competing as aggressively for expensive cargoes on the spot market.

“Available cargoes are going to the buyers bidding for them,” Corbeau said, noting that some Southeast Asian buyers had remained active despite high LNG prices.

She said the prolonged LNG loss from Qatar and the UAE could cause global trade to fall in 2026, even as output grows elsewhere.

Europe and Asia face different risks

The impact is uneven across importing countries. European Union LNG imports were lower than a year earlier between April and August. Chinese imports also declined, although the fall varied from month to month.

Corbeau said the countries most at risk were those that relied heavily on Qatari or Emirati LNG and had not secured enough replacement cargoes. Those dependent on short-term purchases were particularly exposed.

Corbeau identified Pakistan, Bangladesh and India as particularly vulnerable. Japan, she said, is better protected because it buys relatively little LNG from Qatar and has a wider range of long-term contracts linked to oil or US gas prices.

Corbeau said China has so far managed the loss of a significant volume of Qatari LNG, while Europe has coped partly by using more gas from storage, leaving stocks lower.

She said new LNG export capacity under construction in the US, Canada, Australia and Nigeria should gradually add more non-Qatari supply.

However, it could take until 2028 for the global market to return to the more comfortable supply-demand balance previously expected by mid-2026.

Reopening Hormuz would be only the first step

The Strait of Hormuz carried around one-fifth of global LNG trade before the Iran war. Some oil tankers have continued to use the waterway, but LNG carriers are less available, more specialised and harder to replace, leaving Qatar with few practical alternatives for exporting its gas.

Corbeau said QatarEnergy expected to restore output from its 12 undamaged LNG production units within about two months once it was satisfied that the strait was secure.

QatarEnergy has said repairs to two other units damaged in attacks on Ras Laffan could take between three and five years.

Limited LNG movements resumed after a June memorandum between the US and Iran, but the recovery did not last as renewed attacks again raised shipping risks.

Corbeau said the brief restart showed that Qatar could restore exports relatively quickly from its undamaged facilities, but only if ships could pass through Hormuz safely and consistently.

Source: Euronews