Clarksons Research, the data and analytics arm of the Clarksons Group, continue to track and monitor shipping activity and markets impacted by the Middle East conflict.

Summarising their latest update issued today at 10.00 am 20^th July, Steve Gordon, Global Head of Clarksons Research commented:

• Strait of Hormuz transits back to 90% below “pre-conflict” levels, with an average of 12 crossings per day over the past 5 days, (Mar-May: 10, first week of July: 45, pre-conflict: 125)
• Across the weekend 18^th and 19^th July, transits remained limited (an average of ~12 transits per day)
• In tonnage terms, transits have now fallen to >95% below ‘pre-conflict’ levels in recent days
• The flow of energy leaving the Gulf continues to ease back, with an average of ~1.5m bpd of crude passing through Hormuz over the past week (down from 10m bpd in early July and 15m bpd pre-conflict); no “mainstream” VLGCs have left the Gulf in 10 days while no laden Qatari LNG carriers appear to have transited the Strait in nearly 2 weeks
• Share of vessels passing “visibly” via the Oman route remains limited, accounting for 2% of all transits over the past 5 days, down from a 22% share in early July   
• Last week saw the highest level of vessel attacks (5 in total) in the Middle East over the past 2 months, with further incidents reported over the past 24 hours          
• Number of vessels waiting off Oman remains stable at elevated levels for now; ~385 vessels currently waiting off Oman, down 2% w-o-w but still 25% above start-June levels
• Around 850 internationally trading vessels are currently in the Middle East Gulf, including 6% of VLCC, 3% of product tanker, 3% of LNG carrier capacity  
• For now, “energy” shipping markets remain elevated with alternatives, distance and disruption mitigating loss of volume
• VLCC earnings are $128,000/day (+32% vs start-June), while Suezmax / Aframax earnings are up 63% / 68% over the same period to $148,000/day / $109,000/day though product tanker markets have been steadier (MR Clean: $25,000/day)
• Supportive arbitrage dynamics have again developed, boosting gas carrier rates (VLGCs re-bounding to $145,000/day, LNG rates steady at >2x pre-conflict)

More detail from the latest update from Clarksons Research can be found attached (underling data available on request).