KEY TAKEAWAYS

›Super Typhoon Bavi is rated Category 5 by ECMWF and tracking toward Taiwan and China, with landfall expected Friday, 10th July, and gusts of up to 100 knots.

›Vessels are already rerouting around the storm’s path, confirmed by the Signal & AXSMarine Windy.com plugin.

›By Friday, Bavi could cross one of the region’s busiest shipping lanes with gusts of 100 knots and 12 metre waves, threatening both navigation and port operations.

›Iron ore, thermal and coking coal, bauxite, soybeans and nickel ore are the commodities most exposed by volume should Bavi hit Chinese ports hard; elevated wind gust risk persists through November.

Super Typhoon Bavi is currently rated Category 5 by ECMWF, and Windy tracking shows it heading toward Taiwan and China. It is expected to reach the coast on Friday, 10th July, with wind gusts of up to 100 knots.

Vessels are already avoiding the typhoon’s path, as confirmed by the Signal & AXSMarine Windy.com plugin.

However, by Friday 10th July, Bavi could cross one of the busiest shipping lanes in the region, with gusts of 100 knots and waves of 12 metres at an 11 second period: conditions that threaten to disrupt both navigation and port operations.

As a result, all vessel segments, dry bulk, container, tanker and gas, face potential disruption. Container services could see rising congestion as some Chinese ports close or scale back operations for safety reasons. Dry bulk terminals may also slow down, adding to congestion and tightening vessel supply across the Pacific.

Iron ore, thermal and coking coal, bauxite, soybeans, and nickel ore are the commodities most exposed by volume should Bavi hit Chinese ports hard.

With typhoon season now underway, elevated wind gust events are likely to persist through November, as shown in the seasonality data below, keeping supply chain risk on the radar for the coming months.

Source:Signal Ocean