Freight forwarders are facing growing difficulty predicting total landed costs on Europe-bound shipments, as instability across key Middle East corridors means the final bill is increasingly being settled in transit rather than at booking.

Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, fluctuating insurance premiums, and frequently adjusted fuel surcharges are widening the gap between quoted and final costs, particularly on Asia–Europe trades.

“Freight costs are increasingly built during the shipment lifecycle, rather than established upfront,” said Oliver Gritz, founder and CEO of OntegosCloud, a forwarder profitability platform.

Faster response separating performance

As conditions shift during transit, the ability to respond quickly is becoming a key differentiator.

“The difference comes down to data,” added Gritz. “The strongest forwarders quickly identified which customers were impacted, where cargo was located, and what actions were needed. They adjusted routing, introduced additional charges, and protected margins within days.”

Forwarders with stronger data visibility are able to adjust pricing and execution in real time, while slower responses increase exposure to margin pressure as costs evolve mid-shipment.

Trade disruptions driving cost variability

Security risks in the Red Sea have led carriers to reroute Asia–Europe services around southern Africa, extending transit times by approximately 10–14 days. Longer voyages are increasing bunker consumption while tightening effective vessel capacity.

At the same time, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are contributing to higher insurance premiums and additional risk-related surcharges.

“Uncertainty does more damage in freight than the disruption itself. Disruption can be managed, but when costs, timelines, and outcomes become unpredictable, it affects every operational decision,” said Gritz.

Costs accumulating during execution

A typical Asia–North Europe shipment now reflects a more dynamic cost structure.

A forwarder quoting cargo into ports such as Rotterdam, Antwerp, or Hamburg may secure base ocean freight at booking. During transit, additional costs can emerge through:

• bunker adjustments linked to longer sailing distances
• war risk and insurance-related charges
• congestion-driven costs at destination terminals
• inland transport variability across trucking and rail networks

The combined effect is increasing variance between quoted and final costs, particularly on volatile trade lanes.

Margin pressure extends beyond rising costs

Alongside cost variability, forwarders are also managing gaps in cost recovery during execution. Charges such as demurrage and waiting time are not always passed through consistently, particularly when shipments deviate from the original plan. As additional fees emerge during transit, incomplete capture and delayed invoicing can erode margins.

“Charges like demurrage or waiting time are often treated as exceptions, when they are in fact recurring. If they are not systematically tracked and recovered, the impact accumulates across shipments,” said Oliver Gritz.

Inland Europe absorbs the spillover

The impact extends beyond ocean freight. Ports including Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg are experiencing localized congestion and variability in inland flows due to disrupted vessel schedules. This is adding further cost layers through detention, demurrage, and inland transport delays, reinforcing the shift toward costs being determined progressively during execution.

Procurement behaviour begins to shift

The current environment is influencing how importers plan and procure freight. Fixed pricing models are becoming harder to rely on where final costs continue to evolve after booking. In response, some importers are building buffers for variable charges and engaging more closely with forwarders throughout the shipment lifecycle.

As cost structures become more dynamic, managing freight increasingly requires continuous oversight rather than one-time planning.

Execution discipline becoming central to performance

As cost variability increases, performance is becoming more dependent on execution discipline.

“The idea that margins are declining is a myth. This is a business where results are fully controllable through execution,” said Gritz.

“The forwarders who will come out ahead are not waiting for the market to settle – they are building systems that perform regardless of conditions.”

Source: OntegosCloud