Xeneta analyst insight

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst:

“Five weeks into the Strait of Hormuz closure and spot rates on every major East-West trade lane have risen sharply, showing this is a conflict with global repercussions for ocean supply chains.

“From Far East to North Europe and Mediterranean – trades with direct exposure to the Middle East disruption – spot rates are up 31% and 30% since the end of February.

“No shipper is insulated from financial or operational risk. Far East to US West Coast – a trade which transits the Pacific thousands of miles from the epicenter of conflict – has seen spot rates climb 29% since the end of February.

“The complex interconnectivity of global supply chains means port congestion in the Middle East has rippled across to key Asian transshipment hubs — including Singapore, Port Klang and Tanjung Pelepas — which are also vital for feeding goods toward the US.

“The position of carriers is unambiguous – the cost of uncertainty sits with the shipper, even on trades with no direct exposure to the Middle East. Market memory is a powerful force and shippers who experienced the second wave of the Red Sea crisis in 2024, when port congestion in Singapore saw already elevated rates double, are not waiting around and are securing capacity at today’s rates.

“Shippers booking capacity today are paying a premium for certainty, but it is a calculated risk against being caught short in peak season three months from now and paying even higher rates. Shippers who wait for conditions stabilize are placing a bet with no clear evidence behind it.

“Bunker fuel at Singapore — the world’s leading bunkering hub — remains available, with prices roughly double pre-crisis levels, but trending slowly downward after an initial spike of around 200%. Rotterdam prices continue rising, and ship-to-ship fuel transfers in the Far East are adding cost and complexity.

“With no visible end to the crisis, however, carriers are almost certainly drawing up another set of contingency plans. The coming weeks will show whether slow steaming and alternative routing can hold the line, or whether blank sailings become the next lever carriers reach for.”

Data highlights

Market average spot rates – 1 April 2026

• Far East to US West Coast: USD 2,430 per FEU (40ft container)
• Far East to US East Coast: USD 3,382 per FEU
• Far East to North Europe: USD 2,904 per FEU
• Far East to Mediterranean: USD 4,333 per FEU
• North Europe to US East Coast: USD 1,775 per FEU

Offered capacity (4-week rolling average) – w/c 30 March 2026

• • Far East to US West Coast: +12.1% from a week ago
  • Far East to US East Coast: +2.9% from a week ago
  • Far East to North Europe: +12.5% from a week ago
  • Far East to Mediterranean: +6.5% from a week ago

• North Europe to US East Coast: +3.4% from a week ago

Source: Xeneta