Germany has begun receiving its first-ever liquefied natural gas deliveries from Oman, even as war in the Middle East chokes global supply routes — but a deeper look at the country’s gas supply chain suggests Berlin may be more exposed to the crisis than official figures let on.

The shipments, delivered under a four-year contract signed in 2023 between Oman’s state LNG producer and German gas importer Securing Energy for Europe (SEFE), began as planned this month, a SEFE spokesperson told the German Capital magazine.

Oman sits on the far side of the Strait of Hormuz from Iran, and the company said deliveries are unaffected by the ongoing conflict.

The news offers a rare bright spot in an otherwise tightening energy picture.

Iran’s blockade of the strait has halted all LNG exports from Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, while an Iranian strike on Qatar’s Ras Laffan production facilities in mid-March knocked out 17% of the Gulf state’s output capacity.

Economics Minister Katherina Reiche has sought to play down the risks, saying Germany receives “no significant quantities” of LNG from the Gulf and that 90% of its gas arrives via pipeline from Norway, the Netherlands, and Belgium.

Germany more exposed than expected?

Those figures are technically accurate — but they obscure a more complex picture, according to Capital.

Only 10.3% of Germany’s gas imports arrived via its own four LNG terminals last year, all of it almost entirely from the US.

However, the Netherlands and Belgium, which together supplied 45% of Germany’s total gas imports in 2025, are themselves among the EU’s largest LNG importers.

Rotterdam and Zeebrugge receive large volumes of liquefied gas by tanker, regasify it, and pipe it onward into Germany.

Belgium’s Zeebrugge terminal handled a record 55.5 terawatt-hours of LNG in 2025, double its previous record.

The Netherlands sourced 45% of its total gas imports as LNG in 2024, with American cargoes accounting for 30% alone, Capital reports.

Because the origin of individual gas molecules moving through pipelines cannot be traced, the true scale of Germany’s indirect LNG dependency — and its indirect exposure to US supply — is impossible to pin down precisely. But the direction of travel is clear.

Germany’s storage levels add to the pressure. Reserves currently stand at around 22%, historically low for this point in the year, according to Capital.

There are few market incentives to refill ahead of next winter, as near-term and forward gas prices are roughly aligned — meaning only traders betting on a prolonged conflict are currently injecting supply.

The Federal Network Agency said this week it sees no volume problems and that security of supply is guaranteed, noting that price guarantees in consumer contracts provide a buffer against immediate market shocks.

But it acknowledged that price volatility could persist depending on how long the conflict lasts.

Wider European pressure on supplies

TTF, Europe’s gas price benchmark, briefly surged past €60 per megawatt-hour following the Ras Laffan attack — twice the pre-war level — before settling at around €55.

Energy consultancy ICIS projects prices of €85/MWh if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for three months, rising to €120 for six months and €150 for a full year.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz has floated extending the operational life of coal-fired power plants to reduce gas consumption in electricity generation.

Meanwhile, Reiche has called on German importers to lock in long-term supply contracts with producers in Azerbaijan and Algeria.

SEFE is also launching a new tender this week covering LNG deliveries between 2027 and 2036, targeting terminals across Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Belgium — explicitly designed, the company said, to offset Middle East supply disruptions.