• Limitations of conventional routing and fuel efficiency can leave significant value on the table.
• AI-driven voyage intelligence with human support enables holistic insight for better decisions.
• Eliminating inefficiencies with adaptive strategy can deliver measurable voyage savings.

A lack of commercial clarity in voyage planning can lead to inefficiencies that silently erode margins – and real optimization is all about connecting the dots between a range of operational and economic factors to fully unlock value, according to StormGeo’s Commercial Lead Routing Rolf Reksten.

“Voyage optimization has become an industry buzzword. It is nothing new – this has been the ship operator’s job for decades. What is missing is properly integrating the commercial dimension into that equation,” Reksten says.

“This means that a significant amount of value is being left on the table simply because decisions are not connected to real commercial outcomes. Without full visibility of the commercial picture, optimization remains subject to uncertainty due to unseen variables.”

Relating to real-world conditions

When planning a ship voyage, commercial parameters determine whether the voyage will be profitable, contractually compliant and operationally efficient. Key parameters include TCE/market value and charter terms, operating costs (fuel, port charges, insurance etc.), bunkering strategy, laytime and demurrage risk, cargo delivery, port efficiency, weather-related delay risk and emissions costs.

While digital tools have transformed voyage planning, these remain largely focused on routing efficiency and fuel consumption, in line with conventional thinking in the industry. But without proper assimilation of economic data, this can result in commercial blind spots in decision-making.

Market conditions and economics are constantly changing, and it is therefore necessary to manage and relate to current market data in voyage planning so that decisions are aligned with the real-world situation, according to Reksten.

“Voyage optimization isn’t static; it’s a dynamic picture. Relying on averages for freight and bunker prices is insufficient as you need real-time market insight to make the right decisions,” he explains.

The complexity of modern shipping combined with market volatility demand a holistic approach in which commercial considerations are truly integrated into operational planning and execution, Reksten believes.

Managing voyage trade-offs

A typical voyage entails multiple commercial trade-offs, but these may not be properly considered if there are fragmented responsibilities and a lack of data-sharing between chartering and operations teams in voyage planning, which can result in missed opportunities.

For example, reducing fuel usage with slower routing to cut emissions or taking a detour to capture a lower bunker price may appear to make sense. But the resulting delay could mean missing a cargo offloading window – and incurring penalties – or losing out on a more lucrative contract in a higher market. Consequently, fuel or emissions savings could be heavily outweighed by avoidable losses.

“Understanding these commercial trade-offs and accessing actionable market data for adaptive planning is key to a successful voyage. Operational optimization without commercial context can deliver a sub-optimal outcome,” Reksten says.

Operational decisions on speed, routing and arrival timing directly influence the commercial variables of a voyage in terms of fuel consumption, daily earnings, arrival performance and emissions exposure.

“Time is money in shipping. This is a critical factor in an industry where every minute counts. Commercial visibility means connecting the right data to the right decisions at the right time to effectively manage and relate to these variables in real time,” Reksten says.

Optimizing with commercial goals

StormGeo, a global provider of weather intelligence and decision-support solutions, is enabling data-driven voyage optimization powered by commercial goals to ensure routing and speed decisions are aligned with key priorities such as fuel efficiency, earnings performance, emissions targets and arrival certainty.

“A small change in speed can influence margins, market timing and operational commitments. Value is lost when optimization is not aligned with a clearly defined commercial objective,” Reksten explains.

The shift towards commercially smart voyages is being facilitated by voyage intelligence that harnesses AI-driven predictive analytics to assimilate operational, commercial and sustainability insights into a single decision-making framework, supported by human expertise.

This allows structured comparisons of routing and speed scenarios in pre-voyage planning to determine voyage duration, fuel consumption, total cost and time-charter equivalent (TCE) implications. Speed and routing can be reassessed daily to reflect changing weather, operational conditions and commercial priorities, ensuring continuous alignment during execution by giving operators full visibility of the trade-offs that influence commercial outcomes.

“When you align operational decisions with commercial priorities, it is possible to reduce or eliminate the many small inefficiencies that erode voyage margins and thereby maximize total value – not just fuel efficiency,” Reksten says.

Human support for decision-making

He emphasizes the importance of having humans in the loop to provide expert insights that balance algorithmic recommendations with real-world considerations.

“You cannot optimize a bad route. That is where human judgment comes in: to secure accountability with AI and ensure the correct routing fundamentals are in place for optimization through rigorous data validation and vessel-specific performance modelling,” he explains.

Voyage intelligence provides commercial clarity by integrating voyage economics, bunker strategy, ETA accuracy and charter party implications with operational factors – such as metocean conditions and dynamic routing – and sustainability factors, including emissions monitoring and regulatory compliance. Such integration makes it possible to optimize across profitability, contractual compliance, supply chain timing and environmental costs.

Maximizing total voyage value

And this, according to Reksten, has been proven to deliver improvements of between 3-8% in total voyage cost performance through tangible fuel savings, reduced emissions, less waiting time and higher earnings, while improving charter party compliance. It also enables better fleet-wide performance benchmarking.

“The idea that you can plan a voyage once and execute it exactly as planned is becoming outdated,” Reksten concludes. “Voyage optimization is evolving into something much bigger – it’s about making every decision count from both an operational and a commercial perspective to truly realize value.

“And operators that can continuously adjust voyage strategy in line with changing conditions will be able to capture most value in a cost-sensitive and sustainability-focused industry.”