East and South Africa’s limited domestic refining capacity – just two active refineries, both located in South Africa, with one having shut for maintenance earlier this month – and its reliance on the Middle East for nearly half of its seaborne crude and product imports, make the region particularly vulnerable to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.

The immediate impact has been significant. Refined product exports to East and South Africa are down by ~25% m-o-m in March (days 1-24). Flows from the Middle East Gulf have been hit hardest, plunging by nearly 75% over the same period. Diesel is the most affected product, with exports down by over 40% m-o-m.

Alternative suppliers have stepped in: shipments from Northwest Europe to E&S Africa have ramped up to around 200 kbd, ~50% above the previous record in Vortexa’s 2016-2026 dataset, set in Feb 2024. 75% of exports from NWE are gasoline, with the rest being mainly fuel oil.

Exports from India West Coast toward the region are also at seasonal highs, around 75% above normal levels, split roughly evenly between gasoline and diesel.

Additionally, four MR2 tankers carrying approximately 1.15mb of diesel are en route to South Africa from the U.S Gulf of Mexico, far exceeding volumes previously observed in Vortexa’s dataset, which had never surpassed 310kb for this route for diesel.

Despite the sharp drop in exports, imports appear relatively stable in March (days 1-23), with diesel imports down just 5% m-o-m and overall crude and refined product imports down 2.5%. This is largely due to the arrival of cargoes loaded from the MEG and India West Coast in Jan and Feb.

However, this buffer is temporary. With exports significantly reduced, East and South Africa is highly exposed to fuel shortages in the coming weeks. Diesel, in particular, stands out as the most at-risk fuel, notably as MR2 clean rate for NWE – South Africa rates have skyrocketed, up almost fourfold for Rotterdam – Durban.