VLCC Market becoming harder to price as Risks Grow

Clean
LR2
MEG LR2 freight fell this week. The TC1 75kt MEG/Japan index went from WS391 to WS358 with the corresponding TCE dropping to $80,200/day on Baltic description round trip.
A voyage west saw the TC20 90kt MEG/UK-Continent index also come off to the $7.45 million mark (-$737,000).
The TC15 80kt Mediterranean/East index climbed by $975,000 to $7.97 million this week.
LR1
The TC5 55kt MEG/Japan index currently sits at W361, down 60 points.
A run west on TC8 65kt MEG/UK-Continent ended the week with the index $41,600 lower to over $5.73 million.
On the UK-Continent, LR1 freight added another 30 points this week to WS279 for the TC16 60kt ARA/West Africa index.
MR
The TC17 35kt MEG/East Africa index lost 25 points to WS380. This took the Baltic TCE for the route to $33,300/day round trip.
On the UK-Continent, MRs were tested down this week. The TC2 37kt ARA/US-Atlantic Coast index was assessed 16 points lower than last week at WS220, with the Baltic TCE for the round trip at $19,300/day.
In the US Gulf, MR freight also sunk this week. The TC14 38kt US Gulf/UK-Continent run is currently assessed at WS385 after beginning the week at WS405. The Baltic round trip TCE for the run is now at $54,000/day. The Caribbean voyage on TC21, 38kt US-Gulf/Caribbean is presently pegged at $1.97 million (down $407,000).
The MR Atlantic Triangulation Basket TCE went from $76,700/day to $68,900/day.
Handymax
In the Mediterranean, Handymax’s on TC6, 30kt Cross-Mediterranean index fell 90 points to WS333 this week.
The TC23 30kt Cross UK-Continent route firmed again to WS391 this week (+10) which generates $72,500/day on Baltic TCE round trip.
VLCC
As the USA & Israeli action against Iran continued, an extraordinarily difficult week was experienced for the Baltic panellists. The extreme risk to shipping via the Straits of Hormuz has reduced those owners previously willing to chance it, to no longer bear that risk. At present, our panellists remain able to price Middle East loading for the Crude Oil shipping market. Rates for the TD3C route (270,000mt Middle East Gulf to China) were being assessed at WS466.67 last Friday and is now being rated at WS348.89 which corresponds to a daily round trip TCE of $326,198 for the standard Baltic VLCC.
In the Atlantic market, the rate for the 260,000mt West Africa to China route (TD15) has softened from WS252.81 last Friday but remains dramatically firm at WS178.44, giving a round voyage TCE of $134,849, while the US Gulf to China route (TD22) fell from $26,055,556 to $21,244,444 which gives a daily round trip TCE of just over $126,000.
Suezmax
In the Suezmax sector, the rate for the 130,000mt Nigeria/UK Continent voyage (TD20) trip fell from WS311.94 to WS249.33 which translates into a daily round trip TCE of about $123,500. The TD27 route (Guyana to UK Continent basis 130,000mt) retracted from WS300 to WS261, giving a daily round trip TCE of about $132,680. In the Black Sea, rates for the TD6 route of 135,000mt CPC/Augusta fell from WS343.88 to about WS250, meaning a daily TCE of nearly $234,900. In the Middle East, the TD23 route of 140,000mt Middle East Gulf to the Mediterranean (via the Suez Canal) rose from about WS515 to just over WS518.
The new Baltic route of 145,000mt USG/UKC (TD33), eased from WS280 to WS252.5.
Aframax
In the North Sea, the rate for 80,000mt Cross-UK Continent route (TD7) moved down from WS244.17 to WS207.5, giving a daily round trip TCE of about $103,750 basis Hound Point to Wilhelmshaven.
In the Mediterranean, the rate for 80,000mt Cross-Mediterranean (TD19) slipped from WS340.5 last Friday to WS333.22 (basis Ceyhan to Lavera, that shows a daily round trip TCE of just above $125,250).
Across the Atlantic, the market has also faced the shrinking effect. The 70,000mt East Coast Mexico/US Gulf route (TD26) fell from WS445 to WS298 (giving a daily round trip TCE of almost $79,400) and the 70,000mt Covenas/US Gulf route (TD9) shrank from WS420 to WS280 (translating into a daily round trip TCE of nearly $67,900).
The rate for the transatlantic route of 70,000mt US Gulf/UK Continent (TD25) tumbled from WS398 to WS289 which gives a round trip TCE basis Houston/Rotterdam of almost $55,900/day.
On the Vancouver exports, the rate for TD28 (80,000mt crude oil Vancouver to China) has slipped from $4,775,000 to $4,475,000 (a round trip TCE of about $66,300/day) while TD29 (80,000mt crude oil Vancouver to Pacific Area Lightering point off the USWC) has fallen from WS398 to WS375.
Source: Baltic Exchange
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