Middle East conflict is creating a three-layer cost impact for European and Italian trade, says Sogese

• For European supply chains, the crisis effectively creates a threefold pressure on logistics costs through longer routes, higher risk premiums, and container imbalances and can cause a 2–3x longer supply chain recovery time

• For Italy, while ports remain open, the operational landscape is increasingly strained by yard congestion and labor disruptions at gateways like Livorno and Salerno. For Italian exporters, the crisis has shifted from a threat of port closures to the daily reality of inflated freight costs and the logistical complexity of ‘last mile’ Mediterranean feeder legs

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is beginning to reshape global shipping routes and place growing pressure on European supply chains, with Italian businesses facing longer transit times, rising freight costs, and increasing uncertainty in logistics planning, according to container logistics specialist Sogese. According to Sogese, a growing number of containers remain stranded across ports and terminals in the Gulf region, disrupting normal cargo flows and equipment rotation.

“The crisis is already creating pressure on local businesses operating in the region,” said Andrea Monti, CEO and Managing Director of Sogese. “Each container trapped in the Middle East effectively removes multiple pieces of equipment from circulation across global trade routes. This has an immediate knock-on effect on payment cycles, because shipments cannot be completed while the cargo is held up.”

“Shipping networks are adapting rapidly to a much more uncertain geopolitical environment,” added Monti. “The combined pressure from the Red Sea security situation and the tensions around the Strait of Hormuz is forcing carriers to rethink routes, schedules and risk exposure. For European shippers, this can cause 2–3x longer supply chain recovery time which translates into longer voyages, higher costs and less predictable transit times.”

The disruption means that carriers and logistics operators may need to reposition containers from other global markets to compensate for the equipment trapped in affected ports. Beyond shipping routes, the conflict is also creating operational challenges across the logistics chain.

Escalating tensions across the region and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have forced major container carriers to suspend or reroute services serving the Gulf. Shipping lines including Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, and MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company have begun redirecting vessels to alternative routes or ports while imposing emergency conflict and war-risk surcharges on affected cargo.

The disruption adds to existing pressures across the Red Sea and Suez Canal corridor, creating a highly complex routing environment for Asia–Europe trade.

Freight rates and container availability under pressure

The imbalance in container availability is also expected to create volatility in freight pricing.

Freight markets have already begun reflecting the disruption. The Drewry World Container Index shows container freight rates stabilising or rising on several trade lanes, with the Shanghai–Genoa route trading at roughly $2,800 per 40-foot container in early March.

“Whenever equipment becomes trapped in one region of the world, it creates a ripple effect across global logistics networks,” Monti explained. “Containers will need to be repositioned from other locations, which temporarily tightens availability and can put upward pressure on freight and container prices.”

Reliability concerns for shipping schedules

The crisis would also temporarily disrupt shipping schedules as carriers rearrange services and cargo flows.

Sogese notes that service realignments and rerouting could create localized congestion in certain ports, particularly where diverted cargo volumes suddenly increase.

“Logistics networks are extremely interconnected,” Monti said. “When routes are rearranged quickly, some ports can suddenly receive more vessels than expected while others see fewer calls. This can create temporary imbalances, with ships waiting longer to berth and schedules becoming less reliable for a period of time.”

Italian ports such as Livorno, Salerno, and Trieste are currently facing some operational headwinds, with labor strikes and high yard utilization leading to intermittent delays. While it is true that most Asia–Europe container traffic is now routed around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid regional security concerns in the Gulf, the resulting uneven arrival of vessels has further strained local port capacity, prompting congestion surcharges at hubs like Salerno.

Wider economic implications for Europe

Beyond logistics, the crisis is also contributing to volatility in global energy markets. Rising oil and gas prices linked to Middle East tensions are increasing costs for shipping, manufacturing and transportation across Europe.

According to Sogese, sustained increases in energy prices could create broader economic risks if they persist. “Energy prices are a critical variable for logistics and industrial production,” Monti said. “If oil and gas costs remain elevated for an extended period, Europe could face the risk of inflation rising without corresponding economic growth. That is a scenario businesses will be watching closely.”

Impact on Italian ports and export sectors

For Italy, while ports remain open, the operational landscape is increasingly strained by yard congestion and labor disruptions at gateways like Livorno and Salerno. While much of the Asia–Europe container traffic has already bypassed the Gulf due to regional tensions, but the impact on Italian exports is substantial. Italy’s €18–19 billion annual trade with the GCC spanning across machinery, aerospace, and agri-food is currently facing delayed schedules, spiked insurance premiums, and selective booking suspensions. For Italian exporters, the crisis has shifted from a threat of port closures to the daily reality of inflated freight costs and the logistical complexity of ‘last mile’ Mediterranean feeder legs.

“While physically open, Italian ports are continuing to operate under strain, but exporters are starting to feel the ripple effects,” said Andrea Monti, CEO and Managing Director of Sogese.“The main pressure is not at the terminal level but across shipping routes, where longer voyages, higher insurance costs, and equipment imbalances are making logistics planning more complex for Italian businesses.”

Supply chains adapting to a shifting landscape

To mitigate disruptions, logistics providers are exploring alternative transport corridors and multimodal solutions linking maritime and overland routes across the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean.

However, Sogese notes that these alternatives have limited capacity and cannot fully replace established sea routes in terms of efficiency.

“Global trade will continue to move, but the environment has clearly become more complex,” Monti said. “For European businesses, the priority now is flexibility in supply chain planning and close coordination with logistics partners as routes and costs continue to evolve.”