Crude Oil Price Movements

In February, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value increased by $5.59/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $67.90/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $4.64/b, m-o-m, to average $69.37/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract increased by $4.26/b, m-o-m, to average $64.52/b. The GME Oman front-month contract increased by $5.63/b, m-o-m, to $68.42/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread increased by $0.38/b, m-o-m, to average $4.85/b. The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. The structure continued to be supported by firm physical market fundamentals, alongside supply outages and concerns over potential supply disruptions amid geopolitical developments. Hedge funds and other money managers turned increasingly bullish, boosting net long positions by 46%, m-o-m.

World Economy

The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The US economic growth forecasts remain at 2.2% for 2026 and 2% for 2027. In the Eurozone, the economic growth forecasts remain at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027. Japan’s economic growth forecasts remain at 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027. The economic growth forecasts for China remain at 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027. India’s economic growth forecasts remain at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027. Brazil’s economic growth forecasts remain at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027. Russia’s economic growth forecasts remain at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.

World Oil Demand

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at a healthy 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d next year, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by around 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.

World Oil Supply

Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, mainly driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is also forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s assessment, mainly driven by Brazil, Canada, Qatar, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average about 8.8 mb/d, followed by similar growth in 2027 of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, to average about 8.9 mb/d. In February, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC increased by 445 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.72 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.

Product Markets and Refining Operations

In February, refining margins in the Atlantic Basin increased, given the reduction in product output due to seasonal refinery maintenance. Moreover, geopolitical tensions and concerns over product flow disruptions further contributed to upward pressure on product margins. On the US Gulf Coast (USGC), margins were backed by gasoline and middle distillate strength, while in Rotterdam, gains were seen across the barrel, except for low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). Refining margins in Singapore moved downwards as regional gasoline inventory builds, higher jet/kerosene availability in Southeast Asia, and stronger feedstock prices weighed on regional refining margins.

Tanker Market

VLCC spot freight rates showed a strong performance in February, as fleet consolidation and rising tanker demand on long-haul routes tightened availability. On the Middle East-to-East route, spot freight rates rose by 65%, m-o-m. Suezmax spot freight rates edged higher, lifted in part by spill-over support from the exceptionally strong VLCC market. Spot freight rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route rose by 7%, m-o-m. Aframax rates strengthened, particularly in the East of Suez. Rates on the Indonesia-to-East route were up 21%, m-o-m, and intra-Med rates increased 14%, m-o-m. Clean spot freight rates weakened East of Suez and edged slightly higher West of Suez as the maintenance season boosted the need for product imports.

Crude and Refined Product Trade

US crude imports rose by 5%, m-o-m, in February, while crude exports from the US averaged 4.2 mb/d, up by 87 tb/d, m-o-m. Product exports slipped to 6.7 mb/d, although flows of distillate and residual fuel oil remained strong. In January, crude imports into OECD Europe are estimated to have been below the 5-year range, as refinery closures reduced import requirements. Product imports into OECD Europe fell compared to the previous month, with declines across all major categories. Meanwhile, Japan’s crude imports fell back in January from a multiyear high the month before to average 2.5 mb/d. Product exports from Japan moved above the five-year range, supported by higher outflows of gasoline and gasoil amid healthy margins in the region. Crude imports into China are estimated to have begun the year above the five-year average, at 12 mb/d, although supply sources varied from the previous month. Product imports into China remained above the five-year range, despite a seasonal decline, m-o-m. India’s crude imports averaged just below 5 mb/d in January. Product imports performed well at 1.3 mb/d, while exports matched the five-year average.

Commercial Stock Movements

Preliminary January 2026 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories fell by 19.9 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,824 mb. At this level, OECD commercial stocks were 70.5 mb higher, y-o-y, and 9.8 mb above the latest five-year average, but 103.1 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within the components, crude and products stocks fell by 3.0 mb and 16.9 mb, m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,313 mb. This was 24.6 mb higher, y-o-y, but 26.9 mb below the latest five-year average, and 118.1 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD total product stocks stood at 1,511 mb in January. This was 45.9 mb higher, y-o-y, 36.6 mb above the latest five-year average, and 15.0 mb above the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 0.8 days, m-o-m, in January, to stand at 62.0 days. This was 1.3 days higher than in January 2025, but 0.8 days lower than the latest five-year average and in line with the 2015–2019 average.

Balance of Supply and Demand

The demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the DoC) in 2026 is unchanged from the previous month’s assessment of 42.9 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment, to stand at 43.6 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than the 2026 forecast.

Source: OPEC