India’s crude and condensate imports reached a record 5.3mbd in February. This was driven by increased arrivals of non-Russia origin crude, primarily from the Middle East. Meanwhile, arrivals of Russian oil remain pressured m-o-m at 1mbd in February, down from 1.6mbd levels seen in 2023-2025. After a halt in January, Reliance resumed imports of Russian crude, receiving around 155kbd Urals in February.

The trends show a deliberate diversification of feedstock across most Indian refineries: purchases of Russian oil were scaled back while volumes from alternative suppliers increased. This shift is likely intended to facilitate trade negotiations following the US decision to impose a 50% tariff on India linked to purchases of Russian oil. That said, the latest round of US global tariffs, widening discounts on Russian crude and current conflict in the Middle East are likely to continue underpinning Russian oil flows into India.

New tariff rates will lead to continued purchases of Russian crude

Before the US Supreme Court decision, India and the US agreed on February 2 to an interim framework that would cap US tariffs on Indian goods at 18%. However, the US Supreme Court on February 20 struck down President Trump’s wide-ranging tariffs on foreign imports. The administration responded by invoking Section 122 of the US Trade Act to impose 10% global tariffs, beginning February 24. An increase to the maximum allowable 15% tariffs appears imminent.

Amid these developments, India’s trade negotiators rescheduled their planned visit to Washington, which was intended at firming up a trade deal with the US. Absent a formal trade agreement, New Delhi is likely to allow refiners to continue importing Russian oil without restrictions. Moreover, discounts on Russian grades have widened (source: Argus), increasing the economic incentive for opportunistic purchases. These factors point to continued Russian crude arrivals into India.

Venezuelan crude purchases lower India’s demand for mainstream crude

Reliance has acquired roughly 4mb Venezuelan crude from Chevron and Vitol, and received a general licence to import Venezuelan oil. An additional 4mb Venezuelan crude have been sold to IOC and HPCL for April delivery (sources: Reuters and Argus). Reliance’s historical ability to process Venezuelan grades – previously importing up to 10mb per month – means it can expand Venezuelan processing if economics remain attractive. Combined with continued Russian purchases, Venezuelan oil imports will displace demand for other mainstream crude (defined here as crude excluding Russia, Iran and Venezuela).

Ongoing conflict could lead to delayed arrivals of Middle East crude into India

Cargoes loaded from within Straits of Hormuz and bound for India could face delivery delays amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. In February 2026, India received 2.8mbd crude from the region, accounting for 53% of total imports. The country currently holds approximately 144mb of crude in onshore storage, equivalent to around 30 days of coverage at 2025 import levels.

Overall, the nearterm balance of risks is skewed to the downside for India’s mainstream crude import demand. This weakness compounds bearish fundamentals in the global crude market, which is already facing higher y-o-y OPEC+ exports, a planned 206kbd output increase in April, and softer demand prospects in 2Q due to scheduled refinery maintenance across major hubs. Benchmark prices remain elevated on geopolitical risk and once tensions ease fundamentals will dominate, reinforcing a bearish trajectory for the global crude market.

: Vortexa