The announcement from US President Donald Trump about selling “political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of all maritime trade, especially energy, traveling through the Gulf” has yet to be explained in full. Depending on the details of the proposal it might help tip the risk/reward ratio and stimulate more shipowners to resume operations in the high-threat area.

Trump’s announcement that “If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible” sounds interesting and we are awaiting further clarifications on how this would unfold.

Naval escorts would help reduce the threat for the ships being protected. That said, providing protection for all tankers operating in areas currently threatened by Iran is unrealistic as this would require a very high number of warships and other military assets.

At some future point, if the Iranian threat has been degraded significantly, the relative effect of naval escorts will improve. This might push the security risk below the risk acceptance level of some shipowners and cause some ships to resume operations in the high-threat area.