The Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry held the 2026 Logistics Market Outlook Seminar at the Chamber of Commerce building in Jung-gu, Seoul on Dec. 12, announcing global supply chain changes and next year’s market outlook. During the seminar, analysis was presented showing that logistics networks are being distributed across various countries worldwide as the United States strengthens reshoring and de-risking policies in key industries such as semiconductors.

According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), China’s export share to the U.S. decreased by 3.3 percentage points from 18.0% in 2015 to 14.7% this year over the past 10 years. Meanwhile, China’s export share to Southeast Asia increased from 12.2% to 16.4%, and its export share to India increased from 2.6% to 3.4% respectively.

The U.S. import landscape has also changed. The U.S. import share from China plummeted by 8.0 percentage points during the same period, while Mexico’s share increased to 12.1%, surpassing China to emerge as America’s largest import source. Lee Seong-woo, senior research fellow at the Korea Maritime Institute, emphasized, “The United States is restructuring its supply chain with the strategy of ‘narrower yard, higher fence,’” adding, “Our companies must also preemptively secure logistics hubs in line with the shift in import routes to Mexico and Northeast Asia.”

Next year’s sectoral weather forecast showed mixed results. The aviation logistics market is forecast to be clear. Despite concerns over global economic slowdown, demand for high-value cargo such as AI servers, semiconductors, and batteries continues to grow steadily. Eom Seung-jun, team manager at LX Pantos, explained, “Supply cannot keep up with demand due to cargo aircraft retirement and conversion delays,” adding, “A strategy focused on high-profitability cargo and e-commerce volume is necessary.”

In the case of land transportation and logistics warehouse sectors, while cargo volume itself is showing a gradual increase due to e-commerce growth and steady demand for logistics outsourcing from shippers, supply capacity appears to be constrained by factors such as driver and workforce shortages.

For the fulfillment service sector, which handles everything from online sellers’ orders to delivery, demand for order processing, shipping, and return handling is also increasing due to cross-border e-commerce expansion and the growth of direct-to-consumer (D2C) brands. However, as the number of service companies increases, pressure to reduce per-transaction fees and the burden of promotional and marketing costs are expected to grow.

On the other hand, the shipping market is forecast to be cloudy. This is because supply oversaturation is expected to continue, with global vessel capacity growth rates exceeding cargo volume growth rates. Additionally, concerns arose that shipping companies’ cost burdens will increase as environmental regulations such as the European Union’s carbon emissions trading system are strengthened. While land transportation, logistics warehouses, and fulfillment sectors are expected to see increased cargo volumes driven by e-commerce growth, securing profitability will be key due to rising labor costs and price competition.

Lee Hee-won, director of the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s Distribution and Logistics Promotion Institute, stated, “As global supply chains are being structurally restructured, there are limitations for companies to respond alone,” adding, “The government must strengthen policy support such as financial and tax benefits for overseas logistics infrastructure development.”