The global air freight market is shifting dramatically. In the last 12 months alone, we have witnessed major changes on a few of the busiest international trade lanes. The strong demand for flying e-commerce from Asia to the US, one of the largest trade lanes in the world, peaked in Q4 2024, and has tailed off significantly since then. This phenomenon, driven by changes in regulatory and trade policies, as well as market forces, has led to a gigantic shift in supply and demand in the global air freight market from 2024 to 2025.

Additional market factors have further constricted demand for air freight in other market sectors. Meanwhile, longer-term plans for nearshoring manufacturing, which were developed in the wake of the supply chain disruption caused by COVID-19, are being implemented in sectors such as the automotive industry. Nevertheless, demand for air freight in this sector is down overall.

In turbulent times, an adaptable business model is key

One thing is certain: we are living through a tumultuous period for international air freight. There are more unknown variables than in previous periods. These are coming from a range of sources, including government policy and capital trends. Looking forward, there is a lack of visibility and it is hard to predict in the near term what will happen to demand.

In this context, having a business model that enables rapid adaptation is a huge asset.

Thankfully, Chapman Freeborn has a 53-year track record of continuous evolution, which stands us in good stead during this current period of turbulence.

In fact, our air charter products and services are an ideal fit for a changing market place. From day one, the basis of Chapman Freeborn’s cargo model has been ad hoc charters and recurring charter programs. We have then added and integrated other value-add services, deliverables and teams on top of this strong foundation. We offer part-charters and priority air freight, and provide unique services including door-to-door pickup and hand carry transport solutions. Through mergers and acquisitions, we have added specialty brands that further diversify our offering such as Magma Aviation, a specialist operator of Boeing 747 cargo aircraft. We also have a specialist animal division, Intradco Global, and Arcus Aviation, which facilitates critical movements within Europe.

Adapting for different verticals

Our resilient business model means Chapman Freeborn is able to cater to many different types of global and regional users. This is crucial at a time when demand is growing in some verticals and contracting in others.

Defense

Defense is one vertical that is witnessing a significant uptick due to geopolitical dynamics. We have been able to allocate resources and add capability to meet this need, including adding compliance capability, cargo related training, air transport expertise, and full-time employees (FTEs) and to cater to this industry.

Aerospace

The Aerospace vertical has remained robust, with just-in-time manufacturing and air cargo transport still used extensively for the largest manufacturers. Because this sector works on multi-year production cycles, we have seen its demand for air cargo sustained through the year.

Energy

Energy is showing consistent, if not especially high, demand, in particular Oil & Gas. While the oil price is not optimal for profitability for the largest players, this remains a sector that has ongoing requirements for air cargo. When components at a rig or refinery are down, urgent air transportation is needed to get those facilities back online.

Automotive

We have witnessed a significant decline in air cargo demand in the automotive industry. There has been a drop off in demand for automotive just-in-time manufacturing, with charter work, both narrow-body and wide-body, witnessing noticeable declines. We may see some continuation of the trend for nearshoring, and Chapman Freeborn is ready and capable when it comes to providing chartered capacity and non-chartered capacity to meet nearshoring needs within the Americas region. This would typically be with narrow-body aircraft such as 737s, A321s or larger widebody B767s and larger.

The expertise to enable adaptation

Without the right talent and training, our flexible business model and wide range of deliverables would be redundant. That is why we are continuously adding to our team, and ensuring every specialist within Chapman Freeborn develops the necessary expertise.

Our number one function is air transportation, so with every new FTE it all starts with understanding aviation and aircraft. We ensure all team members deeply understand aviation fundamentals in terms of the mechanics of cargo transportation. Then it is about adding specialist competences. We have trained Hazmat and ITAR regulation experts who can work with defense articles and ordinance. We are TSA compliant, which means we have the compliance procedures in place and the experience to transport unique types of cargo. Finally, all of our FTEs must understand our standards. We expect every member of our team to be client-centric, mitigating risk for our customers and passing on their expertise to aid decision-making.

One particular benefit we bring to the table is our very strong regional set up. We have experienced team members not just in the US, but also in Canada, Mexico and Brazil. We are bringing new FTEs online in these areas continually, which means we can operate with local expertise rather than providing all of our services from a central hub.

Client-centricity baked in 

We are focused on adding value for our customer base, which includes airforwarders, who we have the privilege of working with extensively. When markets are changing so quickly, our job is to be on hand to provide urgent air cargo services, including meeting unique and specialist needs. We are also relied on as consultants who can provide guidance in a shifting business environment, including in advance of business taking place.

Ultimately, thanks to our flexible business model and expertise, we are able to adapt fast to our clients’ requirements and provide rapid specialty air freight services as required.