Floating Storage Trends | Per Vessel Size Segment

• As of 3 December, VLCCs dominate floating storage with a 48% share, while Suezmax and Aframax fleets contribute 28% and 24%, highlighting the heavier concentration of crude held on larger tonnage.

VLCC | 7D MA: > 70 Mbbl, compared with ~22 Mbbl in March (+230%)

Suezmax | 7D MA: ~40 Mbbl, compared with a mid-year low of ~13.7 Mbbl (+185%)

Aframax | 7D MA: ~29 Mbbl, up from an early-September low of ~9.1 Mbbl (+220%)

Iranian Barrels Dominate Floating Storage

• Iranian crude represents the largest share of floating storage, with Malaysia acting as the main concentration point.

Compared with earlier months, the recent increase in floating crude volumes coincides with indications that China’s independent refiners had exhausted their import quotas and that teapot run rates had softened amid weak margins, both of which have historically influenced refiners’ willingness to take cargo from offshore. The time series shows a clear rise in floating barrels in early December, returning toward levels seen during previous spikes. However, the recent announcement of a new batch of crude import quotas for the remainder of the year will work in the direction of clearing those extra flows waiting on tankers.

At the same time, the distribution of stored volumes has shifted decisively toward offshore transfer hubs. As of 4 December, approximately 86% of floating barrels were concentrated in the Singapore/Malaysia area, which is commonly used for ship-to-ship transfers and the temporary holding of sanctioned or discounted crude, including Iranian grades. Vessel-level data further shows that the build-up is dominated by VLCCs (80%) carrying almost exclusively Iranian crude (≈99.7%), underscoring that the surge is not broad-based but tied to a specific supply stream facing slower onward absorption.

These refinery-side constraints, combined with refiners’ tactical choice to delay intake rather than accelerate discharge, help explain the longer waiting times, rising floating storage, and slower clearance into China that are now visible across the market.

Macro elements supportive of the high floating storage trends include oversupply and oil price projections

Macro conditions continue to align with the recent rise in floating storage. Several major outlooks point to a looser physical balance heading into 2026, with non-OPEC supply growth remaining a key feature. The latest forecasts still show incremental barrels led by U.S. shale, along with continued offshore growth from Brazil and Guyana.

Oil prices have softened in recent weeks as demand expectations are reassessed and broader risk sentiment cools. Forward spreads have also eased at times, creating periods where short-term storage economics become more viable, which can contribute to the build in offshore volumes when combined with already ample supply.

OPEC+ has signalled a cautious approach to supply management heading into early 2026, though analysts generally expect global balances to remain on the looser side. If oversupply persists and refinery maintenance intensifies into Q1, floating storage could remain elevated, tightening vessel availability and adding upward pressure to freight rates.​​​​​​