The global marine insurer projects a rise in premium income for 2025-26, as well as better returns on investments, higher reserves, and continued success for its diversification strategy. However, it believes a modest increase for 2026-27 is prudent in the current risk environment.

Based on its position eight months into the insurance year, NorthStandard projects premium income of US$930 million for 2025-26 against US$886 million in the previous year, and free reserves of US$900 million (US$800 million). Investment returns are currently predicted to rise to over 6%, up from 5.9% in 2024-25. The Club maintains its S&P Global ‘A’ rating, with capital strength remaining ‘Stable AAA.’ Its improved capital position has also allowed it to allocate more money to growth assets within the investment portfolio.

While the claims environment is also relatively benign compared to last year’s large number of claim referrals to the International Group (IG) pool, the Club nonetheless believes caution is essential.

“NorthStandard’s Investments continue to perform, which is both good for our balance sheet and necessary to maintain our robust underwriting position,” commented Cesare d’Amico, Chair, NorthStandard. “However, a better claims scenario this year must be seen against a background of inflation and volatility. And whilst the claims on the IG so far are fewer, they are once again very large, and the pattern of large claims costing more continues.”

Based on favourable conditions in its retained claims, NorthStandard projects a year-end combined ratio of 104%, which is 10% lower than 2024-25. However, geopolitical-driven disruption to major trade lanes continues, with inevitable consequences for routing decisions and contract terms, while scrapping rates remain subdued. Ship fires and other complex claims also bring unpredictability.

“This year’s cautious outlook provides further evidence of the logic behind our unfolding strategy of diversification,” commented Jeremy Grose, Managing Director, NorthStandard. “Our specialty lines are delivering positive performance across the board. Their average combined ratio of under 90% over a five-year period is strong proof of their contribution to our continuing financial resilience.”

Further strategic initiatives this year have included the Club’s launch of a new Marine & Energy Liabilities portfolio in response to feedback from Members and brokers. Building on its established strength in Offshore & Renewables P&I, the new line provides liability cover beyond traditional P&I. The Club also launched a Hull & Machinery and P&I product to leverage its Sunderland Marine expertise and wider Coastal & Inland capabilities in a combined product offer.

“We will continue to develop with ambition, while maintaining the financial discipline and long-term thinking to underpin our enduring success,” commented Paul Jennings, Managing Director, NorthStandard. “The current risk scenario is not a perfect storm by any means, and the year-to-date is encouraging, but large claims remain inherently unpredictable. Our modest premium increase requirements this year, are further vindication of our successful merger in 2023. In the interests of protecting our Members, we meet uncertainty with prudence to ensure that our underwriting position remains robust.”