Singapore’s bunker fuel sales in October could have reached a new record high, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea, as shipowners diverted ships and ramped up ship-to-ship transfers in response to China’s port fee announcement.

The strong marine fuel demand also followed a quieter September and coincided with heightened activity in the dry bulk and shipping segments during China’s Golden Week holiday in early October, against a backdrop of fluctuating monthly volumes throughout 2025 amid regulatory disruptions.

Total bunker deliveries at the world’s largest marine refueling hub amounted to 5.07 million mt, up 7.6% month over month and 5% year over year, according to CAS nowcast research. Maritime Port and Authority of Singapore (MPA)data shows the previous monthly record high at 5.05 million mt, set in December 2023.

Following Beijing’s Oct. 10 announcement of retaliatory port fees targeting US-linked ships, Singapore port, as a key nexus between the West and the East, saw a spike in major ship volumes.

With the fees taking effect on Oct. 14, the day when the US imposed similar fees on Chinese ships, ship operators were forced to change their operational patterns to protect their bottom line.

While some US ships were diverted away from Chinese ports, some others transferred their cargoes to non-US ships off China or Singapore, according to chartering sources.

The deadweight tonnage of bunkering tankers (bunker, product, chemical and crude) reached a near two-month high at 9.4 million on Oct. 19 on a seven-day ahead moving average basis, according to CAS. Container ship tonnage reached a two-month high of 3.6 million dwt on Oct. 13 on the same basis.

Market participants said the Chinese announcement might have triggered a wave of precautionary bunkering in Singapore, as owners sought to avoid unexpected costs or delays in Chinese ports.

Competitive bunker premiums at Singapore in October relative to other key bunkering hubs, like China’s largest port of Zhoushan, likely spurred the uplift in bunkering demand, however, any larger upswing was capped due to even more competitive premiums at Fujairah, traders said.

Platts assessed the premium for Singapore-delivered marine fuel 0.5%S bunker over FOB Singapore Marine Fuel 0.5%S cargo in October at an average of $12.47/mt, nearly one-third of that of Zhoushan’s October average premium of $35.29/mt, but still marginally higher than Fujairah’s October average of $11.15/mt.

Some market participants noted the uptick more on the high sulfur fuel oil consumption, particularly in the first half of October, when Fujairah premiums surged higher than Singapore’s.

Platts assessed the premium for Singapore-delivered 380 CST HSFO bunker over FOB Singapore cargo for Oct. 1-15 at an average of $11.91/mt, compared to the upswing of Fujairah’s premiums over the same period to $16.83/mt.

In an interview with Platts, Cargill executive highlighted trade inefficiency amid US-China port fee tussle, expecting higher freight rates and bunker consumption as ships would have to travel longer distances to avoid port fees in both China and the US.

CAS estimates showed LSFO (low sulfur fuel oil) retained its lead in Singapore’s marine fuel mix in October, accounting for 51.8% of total sales at 2.63 million mt, while HSFO (high sulfur fuel oil) made up 40.6% or 2.06 million mt, and marine gasoil (MGO) contributed 7.5% at 383,000 mt.

The LSFO estimate by CAS is 8.7% higher than 2.42 million mt of September LSFO sales released by MPA. The HSFO estimate represents a 7.3% month-over-month growth from September’s 1.92 million mt, while the MGO estimate is up 2.4% month over month.

The split between high and low sulfur fuels reflects ongoing adoption of scrubbers and regulatory compliance, with some ships switching grades depending on regional price spreads and operational flexibility.

The CAS nowcast methodology, which combines bottom-up aggregation of ship events with statistical modeling, reported an aggregate error rate of 4.1% over the past 15 months compared to historical data released by MPA.

Outlook

Following a series of trade agreements reached by Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump during their recent meeting in South Korea, the US announced its port fees on Chinese ships will be suspended by a year from Nov. 10. The Chinese government is expected to make similar announcements.

Market participants see Singapore’s bunker market to stay sensitive to US-China policy changes. A Singapore-based ship operator noted that the bunker market could experience higher volumes as the mutual trade restrictions between the two countries ease.

Shipowners may no longer need to ring-fence tonnage between Atlantic and Pacific trades, encouraging more cross-basin voyages and repositioning and, by extension, bunker demand. Nonetheless, such an impact would be gradual and secondary to broader trade flows, he noted.

Source: Platts