• ​​​​​Seaborne oil exports rose 10.4% year-on-year in September, the sharpest annual gain since early 2023, as shipments from Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the U.S. continued to accelerate.
• 2025 flows have consistently tracked above 2024 levels, with total exports surpassing 700 million barrels in September amid robust activity from the Middle East and Atlantic Basin producers.
• The sustained strength in flows is underpinned by higher oil output, with Saudi production climbing toward 9.8 mbd, Russia approaching its 9.415 mbd OPEC+ ceiling, and U.S. output projected at 13.5 mbd, a record high.  The latest OPEC+ decision to add a further 137,000 barrels per day (b/d) from November reinforces the strong supply outlook, suggesting that seaborne volumes are likely to hold firm through Q4 and sustain elevated vessel utilization across long-haul West-to-East trades.
• In the upcoming month, India is expected to increase imports of discounted Russian crude, based on initial vessel-tracking data. September arrivals reached 55.9 million barrels, a 17.38% increase month-on-month but a 1.87% decrease year-on-year. Early-October data indicate a further rise, with the 7-day moving average as of October 8 showing seaborne arrivals near 2.0 million barrels per day, up from around 1.0 million barrels in early September. The forecast for higher inflows is closely linked to a renewed widening of Urals discounts. Trade sources report November loadings at $2–$2.50 per barrel below Dated Brent, compared with roughly $1 per barrel in July–August.

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​​FREIGHT | VLCC weaker, Suezmax mixed in early October

https://go.signalocean.com/e/983831/-dynamic-market-prices-tankers/2rhwmh/538621562/h/UTPrsHeDXILhf2sirjIhaJm74OBM1tHxdKj2OLizD-I
VLCC freight rates softened further in early October, with MEG–China down 16% w/w to WS 68.5. The pullback followed Q3’s sharp rally, echoing across other key routes: MEG–Singapore fell 18.6% to WS 70, MEG–USG slipped 10% to WS 45, and WAF–China eased 7.5% to WS 74. Despite these corrections, quarter-to-date averages remain higher, up 39% on MEG–China and 47% on MEG–USG versus Q2, reflecting a still-tight tonnage balance.

In the Suezmax segment, rate movements were mixed. West Africa–UKC rose 12.8% to WS 110, MEG–Far East increased 8.5% to WS 127.5, while Black Sea–Med slipped 1.7% to WS 142.5. MEG–Med gained 6.6% to WS 105 before the end of the week.

VLCC | Congestion 

China (Discharge Area)

Congestion of VLCCs at Chinese discharge ports has significantly decreased, with an average of 32 vessels, a notable drop from the peak of 47 observed in early November 2024. However, congestion remains well above the early-year trough of 20 vessels