Demand bolstered by trade lanes not bound for the US

“On the strength of demand in trade lanes not bound for the US, we have increased our ship demand growth forecast for 2025 to 4.5-5.5% while maintaining it at 2.5-3.5% for 2026. We now expect a balanced supply/demand development in 2026 while expecting average market conditions in 2025 to be worse than in 2024,” says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.

With few exceptions, the US tariff increases presented on “Liberation Day” are now implemented in full. In addition, several commodity specific tariff increases have increased.

Due to weaker US import volumes, volumes to North America have seen negative year-on-year growth since April. We expect that market conditions could be weaker rest-of-year and forecast that North America import volumes will be contract 2% in 2025 while returning to growth in 2026.

“Cargo volume growth into most regions outside of North America has so far proven resilient and we expect that global volumes will grow 2.5-3.5% in both 2025 and 2026,” says Rasmussen.

In 2025, we expect ship demand to grow faster than cargo volumes as long head-haul trades are growing faster than the average. That is particularly true for Asian exports to Sub-Saharan Africa, South & Central America and Europe & Mediterranean regions.

However, it must be remembered that demand remains elevated due to Cape of Good Hope routings. Suez Canal transits remain 90% lower than before the Houthis began attacking ships in the Red Sea. Should conditions change and ships fully return to normal routings, we expect ship demand to end 10% lower than our forecast.

We have increased our supply growth estimate to 7.3% for 2025 while lowering it to 3.1% for 2026. Slow recycling activity has led us to increase the underling fleet growth estimate while a slight increase in sailing speeds also increase the 2025 supply estimate. The faster growth during 2025 has conversely caused the relative growth rate in 2026 to end lower than previously forecast.

“We expect that market conditions and freight rates could weaken further during the rest of 2025. So far, time charter rates and second-hand ship prices have been remarkably unaffected by the lower freight rates, but we expect that could change starting in the fourth quarter of 2025. As we forecast stable supply/demand growth, we expect that freight rates could stabilise in 2026,” says Rasmussen.

See report: Container Shipping Market Overview & Outlook – September 2025