At  International Union of Marine Insurance annual conference in Singapore, Mike Brews, Chair of the IUMI Cargo Committee, reported a stable marine cargo insurance market — but cautioned that uncertainty lies ahead.

According to IUMI’s latest research, global cargo premiums for 2024 reached USD 22.64 billion, marking a 1.6% increase over the previous year. This steady rise continues a multi-year upward trend. Encouragingly, cargo loss ratios – the balance between premiums earned and claims paid – have improved consistently across most regions since 2018. The claims environment has also remained relatively benign, with no major catastrophic losses reported in 2024.

Brews commented:

“The cargo market remains stable in terms of global premium income. We’ve seen a particularly large jump from China this year, though much of that is likely a correction of previously under-reported insurance on returns. That said, our sector continues to grapple with ongoing challenges, including cargo accumulations, mis-declared cargoes, the transition to net-zero and war-related risks. However, overall 2024 brought no unexpected shocks.”

Looking ahead, however, Brews highlighted the growing impact of tariffs:

“Tariffs are only just beginning to make their presence felt. In the coming months, we’ll be watching closely to see how they reshape insured cargo values and whether shippers and receivers shift to new markets and destinations to work around them. These changes could alter the entire cargo landscape.”

According to Brews, tariffs could increase insured values – and associated risk accumulations – by as much as 50%, particularly in North America. Other regions could also feel the effects, depending on where the transfer of risk occurs within global supply chains.

Shifting trade flows could disrupt established shipping patterns, forcing insurers to adapt to new routes, ports, and storage facilities — each bringing different risk profiles.

Brews also addressed market performance trends:

“We’re definitely seeing an increase in market capacity. Some underwriters are now taking on larger risks at competitive premiums, which inevitably leads to some market softening. However, I don’t expect it to decline as sharply as some predict. Cargo underwriting remains profitable and that’s attracting fresh investment.”

Despite the current period of relative stability, Brews warned that tariffs and broader geopolitical tensions could still bring significant disruption:

“If these forces reshape trade routes, costs, and volumes,” he concluded, “market stability and profitability will undoubtedly come under pressure.”