https://go.signalocean.com/e/983831/dry-dynamic-drybulkflows/2rfb3x/529766697/h/qlsXM_w9Jn7rpH-thHCkUbkxbx_Ie43xdv-F-UOaXHI

Iron ore shipments to China surprisingly strengthened in August, seemingly driven by the drop in iron ore prices and preparations from Chinese mills for a traditional summer pickup. Brazilian exports, in particular, stood out: shipments increased by 7% month-over-month, exceeding August 2024 levels by roughly 3 million tons, marking the highest monthly total for 2025 as shown in the chart. The recent upward trend in iron ore imports has already started to be reflected in the growth of Capesize iron ore days, while whether Chinese iron ore imports will sustain excess levels of 100 Mt will be highly dependent on prices and port inventories.

For more information on this week’s freight, supply, and demand shipping trends, see the analysis sections below. You can also log in to our Newsroom page under Insights & News to stay updated with the latest reports.

SECTION 1/ Freight Rates ($/t) 

‘The Big Picture’ – Capesize Firm

Remark: Freight market price trends depicted are based on Signal Ocean Assessments. For real-time updates and historical comparisons, access our Freight Market Analytics dashboard here: Signal Ocean Freight Market Analytics.

In early September, both the C3 and C5 routes are maintaining strong support levels, with current rates at $24/ton for Brazil–China and nearly $11/ton for Australia–China. This positive sentiment appears to be driven by demand, as the daily loaded volume on the C5 route has significantly exceeded the 2M mt demand benchmark, while the C3 route is just above 1M mt. From a demand perspective, market expectations for the C5 route are more bullish regarding the absorption of ballasters compared to the C3 route.

https://go.signalocean.com/e/983831/ic-capes-insights-downloadable/2rfb47/529766697/h/qlsXM_w9Jn7rpH-thHCkUbkxbx_Ie43xdv-F-UOaXHI

Panamax – ECSA / Far East | USG / China Firm

Panamax spot rates for East Coast South America (ECSA) and US Gulf (USG) to Far East routes have firmed up after a softer trend last week. Prices from ECSA to the Far East are now 7% higher than the previous month. This positive sentiment is supported by a continuous drop in the number of vessels ballasting to ECSA and steady demand.

https://go.signalocean.com/e/983831/dry-dynamic-market-prices-dry/2rfb44/529766697/h/qlsXM_w9Jn7rpH-thHCkUbkxbx_Ie43xdv-F-UOaXHI

https://go.signalocean.com/e/983831/-panamax-insights-downloadable/2rfb4b/529766697/h/qlsXM_w9Jn7rpH-thHCkUbkxbx_Ie43xdv-F-UOaXHI

SUPRAMAX -ECSA / Far East | USG / Far East Firmer

https://go.signalocean.com/e/983831/dry-dynamic-market-prices-dry/2rfb44/529766697/h/qlsXM_w9Jn7rpH-thHCkUbkxbx_Ie43xdv-F-UOaXHI

Supramax spot rates experienced a steady increase in the East Coast South America (ECSA) to the Far East, reaching $37/tonne, an 8% increase from the prior month. The US Gulf (USG) to Far East route also saw gains, reaching $44/tonne, up 7% monthly. This continued strength since July is linked to a consistent decline in supramax vessel supply to the USG/USEC, with counts now around 80, compared to over 100 in early June.

https://go.signalocean.com/e/983831/supramax-insights-downloadable/2rfb4f/529766697/h/qlsXM_w9Jn7rpH-thHCkUbkxbx_Ie43xdv-F-UOaXHI

SECTION 2/ SUPPLY 

Capesize Ballasters Overview (# Vessel Count) Mixed

Capesize ballasters view: The South Atlantic saw a decrease of 5%, while the North Atlantic experienced a notable increase of 40%. Conversely, the Pacific region continues to demonstrate better absorption of ballasters, with a 5% decrease in the Far East/NOPAC region and a 6% decrease in Australasia.

Panamax Ballasters Overview (# Vessel Count): Increasing

Panamax ballasters view: The number of ballasters significantly increased by 10% in the Pacific, specifically in Australasia and Feast/NOPAC. Conversely, the South Atlantic experienced a slight decrease of 1%, while the North Atlantic maintained levels similar to the previous week.

Supramax Ballasters Overview  (# Vessel Count): Increasing 

Supramax ballasters view: Oversupply persists in the Pacific basin, evidenced by a 20% increase in ballasters in Australasia and a 15% increase in the Indian Ocean/South Africa region. The Atlantic also saw a significant rise, with a 28% increase in the South and a 25% increase in the North.

Handysize Ballasters Overview  (# Vessel Count): Increasing 

Handysize ballasters: Both the Pacific and Atlantic basins have experienced substantial increases. In the Pacific, the Far East/NOPAC region saw a 22% rise, while Australasia recorded a 25% increase. In the Atlantic, the number of ballasters showed a more significant increase in the South, with a 20% rise, compared to the North.

SECTION 3/ DEMAND 

Capesize Tonne Days | Iron Ore Increasing

https://go.signalocean.com/e/983831/ic-timeseries-dry-downloadable/2rfb4j/529766697/h/qlsXM_w9Jn7rpH-thHCkUbkxbx_Ie43xdv-F-UOaXHI

Tonne-day growth for Capesize iron ore shipments to the Far East has been stronger this year compared to the past two. After a significant drop in July, it started to recover by late Q3, with August maintaining this strength. This was supported by robust Chinese imports, driven by higher daily hot metal output. Mysteel data shows that average daily hot metal output in August reached 2.41 Mt, remaining steady from July and reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase. A pre-emptive restocking by steel mills in anticipation of a seasonal rise in September steel demand also helped boost August imports. If iron ore prices stay below the critical $100/t threshold, strong Chinese imports and continued tonne-day growth are expected.

SECTION 4/ CONGESTION 

Tianjin Increasing

Tianjin congestion is piling up. From 120+ vessels last week, port delays are now spiking to an estimated 13 days. It remains to be seen whether this will decelerate in the second half of the month, with the Supramax vessel size segment being at the forefront of this congestion.