This week, the spotlight is on the evolving monthly volumes of dirty oil flows, specifically the increasing trend from Saudi Arabia to China. In August, Saudi crude shipments to China surged by 19% year-on-year, exceeding 50 million barrels. This marks not only the highest monthly volume of 2025 so far but also the strongest level since early last year. This consistent upward trajectory since May indicates Saudi Arabia’s aggressive strategy of adjusting its pricing to regain Asian market share.

Conversely, Russian flows into China have shown a decreasing trend in the first half of this year. August imports were around 40 million barrels, consistent with the same month in 2024 but significantly lower than the peaks observed in early 2024. While Chinese buyers continue to purchase Russian barrels, growth has clearly decelerated. The attractiveness of discounted Urals crude persists, but uncertainties stemming from U.S. tariff threats and reduced intake from India seemed to have diverted more Russian cargoes to China without generating additional upside. Consequently, it appears China is now favoring Saudi barrels, particularly in light of geopolitical pressures affecting Russian oil trades.

SECTION 1/ FREIGHT 

 ‘Dirty’ WS 

VLCC Firmer

 

https://go.signalocean.com/e/983831/-dynamic-market-prices-tankers/2rfd9t/530044851/h/OveXQ4TZS0yFi0XfIwzJ18-ySqmGZe-1IWz2hm_xRhk

In the second week of September, VLCC freight rates on the MEG-China route demonstrated a significant increase, climbing above WS70. This represents a 14.5% rise for the week, indicating a strengthening market.
Suezmax Mixed

 

Suezmax rates for the Black Sea – Mediterranean route held steady at WS140, a level reached after last week’s surge. Meanwhile, the West Africa – UKC route saw a firmer trend this week, with rates increasing by 5% to over WS110.

 

Aframax Weaker

https://go.signalocean.com/e/983831/-dynamic-market-prices-tankers/2rfd9t/530044851/h/OveXQ4TZS0yFi0XfIwzJ18-ySqmGZe-1IWz2hm_xRhk

Aframax rates in the Mediterranean have shown a downward trend over the past two weeks, now at WS 130, marking a 12% monthly decrease. Similarly, the NSea/UKC route has weakened, with rates falling below WS 130, after exceeding this level at the end of August.
‘CLEAN’ WS
MR2  Weaker

https://go.signalocean.com/e/983831/-dynamic-market-prices-tankers/2rfd9t/530044851/h/OveXQ4TZS0yFi0XfIwzJ18-ySqmGZe-1IWz2hm_xRhk
Freight rates for the Sikka-Japan route have dropped to WS 170, a significant decrease from mid-June when they exceeded WS 250. However, recent momentum shows a 10% quarterly increase.

SECTION 2/ SUPPLY 

 ‘Dirty’ (# vessels) VLCC AG Decreasing
https://go.signalocean.com/e/983831/mic-vlcc-insights-downloadable/2rfd9x/530044851/h/OveXQ4TZS0yFi0XfIwzJ18-ySqmGZe-1IWz2hm_xRhk
Ras Tanura has seen a consistent decrease in VLCC numbers throughout the summer, following a peak in early July. This decline has significantly strengthened market sentiment, with the recent momentum further bolstered by the absorption of available vessels. Optimism for future cargo flows and fleet utilization is high, driven by the latest OPEC+ agreement. This agreement will increase oil production from October, as Saudi Arabia, a key OPEC+ leader, aims to reclaim market share. However, the pace of these increases will be slower than in previous months, anticipating a potential weakening of global demand.

 ‘Dirty’ (# vessels) Aframax East Med Decreasing

https://go.signalocean.com/e/983831/mic-afra-insights-downloadable/2rfdb1/530044851/h/OveXQ4TZS0yFi0XfIwzJ18-ySqmGZe-1IWz2hm_xRhk

Aframax freight rates in the East Mediterranean remain low, despite a decrease in the number of vessels since late August.

MR Clean (# vessels) Continent Decreasing

https://go.signalocean.com/e/983831/namic-mr-insights-downloadable/2rfdb4/530044851/h/OveXQ4TZS0yFi0XfIwzJ18-ySqmGZe-1IWz2hm_xRhk

Conversely, unlike the dirty freight market, the MR clean Continent segment has seen a strengthening of market sentiment in early September, driven by a decline in vessel count from the mid-August peak.

SECTION 3/ DEMAND (Tonne Days)

‘Dirty’ Decreasing

https://go.signalocean.com/e/983831/nker-dynamic-timeseries-tanker/2rfdb7/530044851/h/OveXQ4TZS0yFi0XfIwzJ18-ySqmGZe-1IWz2hm_xRhk

Dirty tonne days: The growth of dirty tonne-days is showing a decreasing trend, now mirroring the momentum observed at the close of Q2 last year, following the summer slowdown. The key question is whether a revival in the final quarter of the year will further bolster the recent strength in VLCC freight market sentiment.

‘Clean’ Increasing

https://go.signalocean.com/e/983831/nker-dynamic-timeseries-tanker/2rfdb7/530044851/h/OveXQ4TZS0yFi0XfIwzJ18-ySqmGZe-1IWz2hm_xRhk

Clean tonne days: While dirty tonne-days have been declining, clean cargo tonne-days saw a gradual increase in Q2, peaking above last August’s record. This strength has continued into September, although at a slightly slower rate, remaining higher than the previous two years.