Analysts are keeping their oil price forecasts mostly unchanged for 2025, as a rise in OPEC+ output and ongoing U.S. tariff uncertainty weigh on the market, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.

The continued risk of supply disruption from war in Ukraine and the Middle East is providing some support, the analysts said.

A poll of 37 analysts and economists surveyed by Reuters in the last two weeks forecast that Brent crude BRN1! would average $67.84 per barrel in 2025, and that U.S. crude CL1! would hover at $64.61, largely in line with last month’s estimates of $67.86 and $64.51.

Prices are expected to drift down next year, with Brent at $62.98 in the second quarter of 2026, the poll found.

Prices have averaged roughly $70.60 and $67.46 so far this year for Brent and WTI respectively, according to LSEG data.

Investors’ attention is focused on ongoing U.S. trade negotiations and an August 1 tariff deadline. The market anticipates new tariffs from the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump could dampen global growth and in turn, oil demand.

“Uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff plans affect markets and the demand side. The other side of the coin is the rising supply given by OPEC+ alliance. So the mismatch between supply and demand remains,” said Thomas Wybierek, analyst at NORD/LB.

Eight members of OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia, began to raise output in April, most recently agreeing to raise production by 548,000 barrels per day in August.

The eight countries will hold a separate meeting on August 3 and are likely to agree to a further 548,000 bpd increase for September, sources told Reuters.

The analysts polled by Reuters expect global oil demand to grow by an average of over 797,000 bpd in 2025, compared to the International Energy Agency’s estimation of 700,000 bpd.

However, most analysts noted that oil demand could weaken in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to a seasonal slowdown and economic uncertainty, at the same time as OPEC+ is expected to pump more into the market, potentially leading to oversupply.

“We expect prices to see a decrease in the second half of 2025, driven by both slower demand growth and rising supply,” said Moutaz Altaghlibi, senior energy economist at ABN AMRO.

Poll participants also highlighted that the geopolitical risk premium linked to the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East tensions is likely to persist through 2025.

“Geopolitical factors will continue to support oil prices on the margin, helping to keep Brent in the upper $60s rather than the low $60s as we head into 2026,” said Cyrus De La Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank.

Source: Reuters