Amid geopolitical tensions and heightened uncertainty over global economic prospects, oil markets are undergoing significant changes as the key drivers of supply and demand growth of the past 15 years start to ease, according to the latest edition of our medium-term outlook.

The report, Oil 2025, highlights several important trends that could considerably reshape global oil markets in the years ahead. According to the report, China – which has driven the growth in global oil demand for well over a decade – is set to see its consumption peak in 2027, following a surge in electric vehicle sales and the restructuring of its economy. At the same time, US oil supply is now expected to grow at a slower pace as companies scale back spending and focus on capital discipline. Still, among non-OPEC countries, the United States is set to remain the single largest contributor to global oil supply growth in the coming years.

In this context, global oil demand is forecast to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) between 2024 and 2030, reaching a plateau of around 105.5 mb/d by the end of the decade. At the same time, global oil production capacity is expected to rise by more than 5 mb/d to 114.7 mb/d by 2030.

For more key takeaways, read our news article and the full report. You can also watch the launch event with our Executive Director Fatih Birol and the head of our Oil Industry and Markets Division Toril Bosoni, who discuss the report’s main findings.

A wake-up call on the importance of critical minerals for energy and economic security

Constraints on supplies of the critical minerals that go into a wide range of energy technologies – and also play vital roles in the high-tech, aerospace and advanced manufacturing sectors – should serve as a wake-up call on energy security, our Executive Director warns in a new opinion article published by the Financial Times.

The rapid growth of these technologies, combined with countries’ ambitions to expand domestic manufacturing, has focused attention on where the minerals vital for their production are mined and, more importantly, refined. And from an energy security perspective, the picture is not reassuring, Dr Birol writes.

Supplies of the six major energy-related critical minerals – copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earths – are becoming less and less diversified. Since we published our landmark study on critical minerals in the clean energy transition four years ago, the average market share of the top three producers has risen to nearly 90%. And the imbalance is even more striking when you look at a broader set of energy-related minerals also used in sectors such as aerospace, defence and microchips. For 19 out of 20 of strategic minerals, China is the leading refiner, with an average market share of 70%.

Left to their own devices, Dr Birol says, markets will not deliver the level of diversification and growth that would significantly reduce supply security risks.

At the IEA, we are intensifying efforts under our Voluntary Critical Minerals Security Programme to support countries in strengthening resilience against potential supply disruptions and advancing supply diversification. We held the programme’s first stockpiling workshop in June and plan to conduct additional activities in the second half of this year to foster diversified supply chains and enhance emergency preparedness.

Source: IEA