Almost unnoticed in the sweeping new import tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump is that energy commodities have been excluded.

The baseline of 10% on all imports to the United States, and higher for many major trading partners, won’t apply to crude oil, natural gas and refined products, the White House said on Wednesday.

Exempting energy imports is a clear tactic to limit the extent of the price pain that Americans are going to feel from the tariffs, and fits with Trump’s broader aim to keep energy prices low.

But the move also adds to the dilemma facing the rest of the world in how they respond to Trump’s upending of the global trading system.

One of the best bargaining chips many countries will have in responding to the U.S. tariffs is the energy they buy, or could potentially buy, from the United States.
The United States is the world’s top exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and of refined oil products, and ranks fourth in shipments of crude oil and coal.

One of the ways some countries have been trying to stave off tariffs is to commit to buying more energy from the United States.

It’s now questionable that any of these efforts have worked, given the blanket 10% tariffs and the higher rates of 20% on the European Union, 34% on China, 24% on Japan and 26% on India.

These are all countries or regions that currently are major buyers of U.S. energy, or have been, or have the potential to ramp up imports.

Will these countries now put U.S. energy imports on the table in their response to Trump’s tariffs?

It may be worthwhile to view Trump’s tariff actions as similar to those of a schoolyard bully.

To deal with a bully, you have effectively three choices.

You can stand up and fight, in which case you may take several body blows, get hurt and even be defeated. But you will earn respect and may benefit down the line.

Or you can duck and weave, try to negotiate and plead and hope not to get hurt. This usually results in you losing both your lunch money and your respect.

The third choice is to run and hide and hope the bully leaves you alone. This may work for a while but only delays the inevitable.

FACING CHOICES
As far as buying energy from the United States, China has so far chosen to stand and fight, imposing tariffs on imports of U.S. crude, LNG and coal.

This has effectively ended the trade in these products between the world’s two biggest economies.

But it also hasn’t really made much difference to the prices on global markets, largely because China was a relatively small buyer of U.S. energy, and is able to source alternatives without disrupting global flows.

It’s not the same for Europe, which gets more than half of its LNG from the United States, and couldn’t easily replace that from other suppliers.

Europe is also a major buyer of U.S. crude and refined products, and, similar to LNG, would find it hard to source alternatives without causing widespread disruption to global flows and prices.

Europe could conceivably drop U.S. coal without too much negative impact, but the continent is a small buyer.

Japan and India are more likely to try and use energy purchases from the United States as bargaining chips in talks with the Trump administration to secure exemptions or carve outs from the tariffs.

Given the inconsistent nature of Trump and his administration, this may be a tactic that bears fruit, but for now the best that can be said about trying this path is that it is highly uncertain.

While different countries or regional groups like the European Union work through their responses, the common thread that is likely to emerge is that they will seek to lower their reliance on the United States and build trade relations with other nations.

The ultimate result of the tariffs is that the United States will likely become the trading partner of last resort, with countries only buying what they cannot get elsewhere.

Source: Reuters