The total coal shipment volume from the U.S. to Europe in 2024 is estimated at 25.2 million tonnes, reflecting a decline from 2023, which recorded 26.4 million tonnes. This marks a 4.5% year-over-year drop in total coal exports, suggesting a potential weakening of European demand for U.S. coal, possibly due to factors such as regulatory changes, energy transition policies, or economic slowdowns. In 2023, the highest shipment volume occurred in January, surpassing 3 million tonnes, with relatively stable flows throughout the rest of the year. Data for January 2025 reveals a significantly lower shipment volume than previous years, reinforcing the expectation of a weaker coal export outlook. Seasonal trends show that coal shipments typically peak from August to October, indicating a higher demand for coal during late summer and early fall.

In terms of vessel class distribution, Panamax vessels dominated coal transport in 2024, accounting for 49.4% of the total, followed by Supramax vessels at 28.3%, indicating a substantial reliance on mid-sized bulk carriers. Other vessel categories, including Post-Panamax (11.5%) and Capesize (2.4%), contributed minimally. Compared to 2023, Panamax vessels held a slightly higher share of 52.6%, while the Supramax share increased from 23.9% to 28.3%, reflecting a greater reliance on these mid-sized vessels for coal shipments.

Looking ahead, the Signal Ocean Coal Dry Bulk Flows report suggests a weak start to 2025, with January shipments already showing a significant decline compared to previous years. The Q1 2025 forecast anticipates continued downward pressure, with shipments expected to stay below 3 million tonnes per month in both February and March, driven by demand reductions and regulatory constraints. As a result, Q1 2025 is expected to fall below the levels of Q1 2024, potentially resulting in a total quarterly volume under 8 million tonnes, a considerable drop compared to the higher shipment volumes recorded in 2023 and 2022.

For more information on this week’s freight, supply and demand shipping trends, see the analysis sections below. You can also log in to our Newsroom page under Insights & News to stay updated with the latest reports.

SECTION 1/ FREIGHT – Freight Rates ($/t) Mixed

‘The Big Picture’ – Capesize and Panamax Bulkers and Smaller Ship Sizes

The overall trend remains bearish for the Capesize Brazil – North China rates, with recent weeks seeing a slight recovery after a prolonged decline.

• Capesize vessel freight rates for shipments from Brazil to North China have stabilized around $17 per ton, reflecting a 8% decline from the previous month and a 23% drop compared to the same period last year.
• Panamax vessel freight rates from the Continent to the Far East held below $29 per ton, showing a 25% decline compared to the same period last year.
• Supramax vessel freight rates on the Indo-ECI route remained below $7 per ton, marking a 18% decrease from the previous month.
• Handysize freight rates for the NOPAC Far East route have fallen to $25 per ton, representing a 15% month-on-month decline.

• Capesize: A significant decline has brought the current growth rate to record lows from the end of January, compared to the peak at the beginning of the year.
• Panamax: The tonne-day growth continues to follow the weakening trend observed in previous weeks, with market estimates suggesting a further downward revision.
• Supramax: The growth rate remains stronger than in other vessel size categories, with a soft upward trend in early February.
• Handysize: The Handysize vessel segment has maintained its downward trend from previous weeks, though its latest growth rate has slightly surpassed that of the Panamax segment.