January closed with weakening momentum in the dirty freight market, as the growth rate of demand tonne-days has yet to support a notable recovery. However, there are encouraging signs on the supply side, with vessel availability in the Arabian Gulf (AG) trending downward. Additionally, January saw an improvement in AG dirty oil shipments to Far Eastern destinations, with an 8% increase in December 2024 volumes compared to November and a significant 17% rise compared to January 2024.

Examining the VLCC demand tonne-days growth from the AG to the Far East, January marked a strong rebound from the record lows at the start of the year. The growth pace now appears to be aligning with levels seen during the same period in 2024, signalling a potential stabilisation.

These recent trends paint a more optimistic outlook for Far Eastern demand, with China and India playing key roles in driving sentiment toward a firmer freight market in the first quarter. If this momentum continues, it could support a more sustained recovery in the coming months.

For more information on this week’s freight supply and demand trends, see the analysis sections below. You can also log in to our Newsroom page under Insights & News to stay updated with the latest reports.​​​​​

• VLCC MEG-China freight rates maintained the same weakening sentiment as the previous week, hovering around 53 WS. This marks a 5% decline compared to the annual average, while monthly improvement stands at 29%. Suezmax rates for shipments from West Africa to continental Europe have dropped to 73 WS, representing a 30% decrease compared to the same week last year. Meanwhile, Suezmax rates on the Baltic-Mediterranean route have remained below 90 WS for the past two weeks, also down 30% year-on-year.
• Aframax Mediterranean freight rates have been revised downward to WS 120, reflecting a 14% decline over the past week and a 40% drop compared to the same period last year.

• VLCC Ras Tanura: The ship count has decreased to 60, marking a reduction of 13 from the annual average and nearly 24 fewer than the figures recorded before the end of December.
• Suezmax Wafr: The current ship count is 60, following a 12-ship increase over the annual average in the previous week. However, it remains uncertain whether this trend will continue or dip below the annual average in early February.
• Aframax Med: Vessel availability remains limited, indicating that these notably low levels are likely to continue throughout February, with the vessel count consistently staying below the annual average since the start of January.
• Aframax Baltic: The number of ships has remained consistent with the previous three weeks, staying below the annual average of 30, at approximately 24.

• Dirty tonne days: The VLCC segment, after a notable decline in dirty tonne-day growth throughout January, appears to have reached its lowest point by the end of last week. However, a soft upward correction seems to be emerging, though it remains to be confirmed in early February. In contrast, the Suezmax and Aframax segments have experienced a downward correction, following expectations for growth rates above the annual average just two weeks ago.

• Panamax tonne days: The growth rate, which showed signs of a relatively steady trend in the first half of January, has since dropped significantly. It is now notably lower than the annual average following the peak observed at the end of last year.
• MR tonne-days: The growth rate for the MR2 vessel size segment has consistently outpaced that of the MR1 segment, maintaining a firmer pace throughout the recent period. Meanwhile, demand for the MR1 segment has shown signs of growth, though it remains slightly below the annual trend. This suggests a more cautious recovery for MR1 vessels compared to the MR2 segment.