The momentum in the freight market has weakened as we approached the end of January and the onset of the Chinese New Year. The prevailing oversupply situation continues to significantly pressure market sentiment, compounded by a decline in demand for tonne-day growth. In the Capesize segment, we have observed a clear downward trend in tonne-day growth for shipments from Brazil to China, with the performance of the BCI (Baltic Capesize Index) dropping nearly 50% compared to the levels recorded at the same time last year.

As the freight market continues to soften, Capesize laden speeds have fallen to a historic low over the past 12 months, reflecting further stress within the segment. At the same time, the number of Capesize vessels acting as ballasters in the South Atlantic has surged to a record high, surpassing 240 vessels—marking the highest level seen in the past year. This is further underscored by C3 market rates, which have plunged to a record low of $17 per tonne.Looking ahead, the next few weeks will be crucial in determining the direction of the market. The volume of vessel ballasters and the potential growth in demand over the coming four weeks will play a critical role in shaping the overall sentiment of the dry bulk freight market.

Meanwhile, when it comes to iron ore supply, output levels from major producer Vale appear unaffected by the fragile Chinese economic environment. Vale reported this week that its annual iron ore production in 2024 reached its highest level since 2018, despite a decline in Q4 output. The company attributed its strong full-year performance to greater operational stability and the successful launch of key projects. For the full year, Vale’s iron ore production rose 2% year-on-year, reaching nearly 328 million metric tons in 2024, and the company has projected 2025 production to range between 325 million and 335 million tons.

For more information on this week’s freight, supply and demand shipping trends, see the analysis sections below. You can also log in to our Newsroom page under Insights & News to stay updated with the latest reports.

SECTION 1/ FREIGHT – Freight Rates ($/t) Weaker

‘The Big Picture’ – Capesize and Panamax Bulkers and Smaller Ship Sizes

The dry bulk freight market experienced a weakening momentum at the end of January; however, recent sentiment in the freight market remained stronger than at the end of the previous year, despite the Chinese New Year holidays.

• Capesize vessel freight rates for shipments from Brazil to North China have stabilized around $17 per ton, reflecting a 5% decline from the previous month and a 22% drop compared to the same period last year.
• Panamax vessel freight rates from the Continent to the Far East dropped below $29 per ton, showing a 30% decline compared to the same period last year.
• Supramax vessel freight rates on the Indo-ECI route remained below $7 per ton, marking a 20% decrease from the previous month.
• Handysize freight rates for the NOPAC Far East route have fallen to $25 per ton, representing a 16% month-on-month decline.

• Capesize: A significant decline has brought the current growth rate to record lows, compared to the peak at the beginning of the year.
• Panamax: Tonne-day growth has mirrored the recent decline in Capesize ton-miles, reaching one of its lowest levels for January. The weakening trend is expected to continue in the coming days.
• Supramax: The growth rate remains stronger than in other vessel size categories, despite a continued decline from the highs reached two weeks ago.
• Handysize: The Handysize vessel segment has continued its downward trend from previous weeks throughout January, with its latest growth rate now aligning with that of the Panamax segment.