As January draws to a close, the Capesize Brazil–North China freight market maintains a relatively stable sentiment. Although highs have yet to be achieved, the market remains steady. In contrast, the Panamax Continent–Far East route shows weaker sentiment, weighed down by an oversupply of tonnage that continues to depress freight rates. Shifting focus to the ECSA market for the Panamax vessel size category, there has been a notable surge in the number of ballasters. Meanwhile, the P6 route has plummeted to record lows, revisiting the bottom levels seen in mid-February 2023.

As the month progresses, the iron ore market is showing signs of recovery. Iron ore prices for cargoes with 62% iron content surged above $101 per ton in mid-January, reaching a two-week high. This rise reflects market optimism fueled by potential stimulus measures from Beijing. China’s Ministry of Commerce has announced plans to bolster consumption, stabilize foreign trade, and promote investment throughout the year, further lifting market sentiment.

On the geopolitical front, international trade dynamics remain uncertain. While the US administration under President Donald Trump refrained from imposing new tariffs on its first day, directives have been issued to investigate and address ongoing trade deficits. Furthermore, there are looming threats of tariffs targeting Mexico, Canada, China, and the EU, stemming from various trade-related concerns. These developments could have implications for global trade flows and market sentiment in the coming months.

For more information on this week’s freight, supply and demand shipping trends, see the analysis sections below. You can also log in to our Newsroom page under Insights & News to stay updated with the latest reports.

SECTION 1/ FREIGHT – Freight Rates ($/t) Mixed

‘The Big Picture’ – Capesize and Panamax Bulkers and Smaller Ship Sizes

The dry bulk freight market continued a mixed momentum from the previous weeks of January, with a notable decline in Panamax rates from the Continent to the Far East.

• Capesize vessel freight rates for shipments from Brazil to North China have stabilized at approximately $18 per ton, marking an 8% increase month-on-month. However, on an annual basis, rates remain 20% lower.
• Panamax vessel freight rates from the Continent to the Far East dropped below $320 per ton, showing a 25% decline compared to the same period last year.
• Supramax vessel freight rates on the Indo-ECI route dropped below $7 per ton, reflecting a monthly decrease of 18%.
• Handysize freight rates for the NOPAC Far East route have fallen to $27 per ton, representing an 8% month-on-month decline. The downward trend has persisted into the final days of January.

• Capesize: A decline has been observed over the past two weeks; however, the current growth rate has not yet dropped to the lows recorded in week 42 of the previous year.
• Panamax: January failed to show signs of a recovery, with tonne-day growth declining to one of its lowest levels since the end of week 34 of the previous year.
• Supramax: Despite the recent decline, the growth rate appears to maintain stronger momentum compared to other vessel size categories.
• Handysize: The Handysize vessel segment extended the downward trend observed in previous weeks throughout January, with signs of further slowdown toward the month’s end.