November brought a significant downturn in dry bulk freight rates, with the Baltic Capesize Index plummeting by 40% on a monthly level. The Baltic Panamax Index also showed a decline, though at a slower pace of 14%. In smaller vessel categories, the Supramax and Handysize segments have seen milder decreases, with the Supramax index down by 10% and the Handysize index demonstrating notable resilience, remaining relatively stable at last month’s levels. This varied performance across vessel types reflects differing dynamics and demand factors influencing each segment.

Examining recent freight market trends and attempting to anticipate developments in Q4, we observe marked growth in tonne-days for specific cargo types in the Handysize, Supramax, and Panamax segments. The Handysize sector, for instance, has seen agricultural cargoes driving a surge in tonne-days, now exceeding 27 million — the highest level since Q1. This growth has been fueled by strong activity from the Atlantic America region, particularly from Brazil, where agricultural exports have been robust. The Panamax sector’s primary growth driver has been thermal coal cargoes, with tonne-days increasing significantly from mid-September, reaching a peak of 35 million in early November, the highest level for the year. This upswing can be attributed to increased exports from Indonesia, which has played a key role in supporting demand for Panamax vessels.
In the Supramax segment, minerals cargoes have shown consistent growth in tonne-days since early June, reaching 35 million in recent weeks — the highest level observed in the past three years. Looking ahead, these upward trends in specific cargo types could provide some support to freight rates in Q4, particularly if export volumes in key regions remain strong. However, with varying demand across vessel sizes and types, the outlook for dry bulk freight rates may remain mixed, shaped by evolving global trade patterns and regional increased ongoing geopolitical risks.

For more information on this week’s freight, supply and demand shipping trends, see the analysis sections below. You can also log in to our Newsroom page under Insights & News to stay updated with the latest reports.

SECTION 1/ FREIGHT – Freight Rates ($/t) Weaker

‘The Big Picture’ – Capesize and Panamax Bulkers and Smaller Ship Sizes

The dry bulk freight market continues to show weakening momentum in the larger vessel categories, though Capesize rates from Brazil to North China are displaying subtle indications of a possible upward shift.

• Capesize vessel freight rates for shipments from Brazil to North China appeared to have found a floor at $21 per ton. This represents a significant 24% decline compared to rates from the previous month, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market and shifting demand dynamics.

• Panamax vessel freight rates from the Continent to the Far East stood around $33 per ton, reflecting a monthly decline of 14%.

• Supramax vessel freight rates on the Indo-ECI route dropped below $10 per ton, reflecting a monthly decrease of 13%.

• Handysize freight rates for the NOPAC Far East route have dropped below $34 per ton, reflecting a 4% decline month-over-month, with a downward trend continuing into November.

• Capesize: The current trend confirms a soft rebound, leaving it uncertain whether the recent growth will improve further in November.
• Panamax: Weekly percentage growth, seemed to have already reached a peak at the end of October, still fuelling positive market expectations for November.
• Supramax: The growth rate in the first half of November has shown stronger momentum compared to late October, even surpassing the recent peak reached in week 39.
• Handysize: The growth rate held an increasing pace from the end of October while there are indications of a similar trend in the coming days.