Europe Gas: Prices ease but Middle East risk premium remains

Dutch and British wholesale gas prices eased on Thursday morning but remain near their highest in a month as concerns persist over disruption to gas production in the Middle East as conflict in the region intensifies.
The benchmark front-month contract at the Dutch TTF hub was down 0.20 euros at 38.47 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), or $12.45 mmBtu, at 0850 GMT, LSEG data showed.
The British equivalent TRGBNBPMc1 was down 0.10 pence at 96.30 pence per therm.
The focus remains on the Middle East and any major shifts in liquefied natural gas (LNG) output if Israeli gas production is impacted, one trader said.
Chevron briefly stopped natural gas production at the Tamar and Leviathan platforms off the coast of Israel on Tuesday but has since resumed operations.
“We believe that the recent tightening from potential Israeli production disruptions has increased the risk of price spikes in European markets this winter,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.
Sustained disruption at the Leviathan and Tamar gas fields could lead to a net tightening of 9 billion cubic metres (bcm) per year, or 1.7% of global LNG supply, they added.
“Increasing Norwegian flows as we near conclusion of the heavy maintenance period, coupled with temperatures in line with seasonal normal levels, eases the impact of the uncertainty the conflict is causing,” analysts at Northern Gas and Power said in a morning briefing.
In the British market, the day-ahead contract TRGBNBPD1 was 0.50 pence down at 93.00 pence per therm.
Norwegian exports to Europe and Britain are nominated at 290 million cubic metres (mcm) per day, up from 278 mcm/day on Wednesday, data from infrastructure operator Gassco showed.
Russia’s Gazprom GAZP.MM said it would send 42.4 mcm of gas to Europe via Ukraine on Thursday, the same as on Wednesday.
Europe’s gas storage was 94.34% full, a minor decrease day on day, Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed.
In the European carbon market, the benchmark EU carbon permit contract CFI2Zc1 was up 0.27 euros at 62.87 euros a metric ton.
Source: Reuters reported by Nora Buli and edited by David Goodman
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