The last week of July continued to reflect the weakening trend in Capesize rates from Brazil to North China. This decline was accompanied by a rise in the number of ballast vessels, exceeding the annual average, suggesting a potential oversupply scenario in the near future.

In the grain segment, recent data illustrates a robust uptrend in the monthly volume of Russian grain shipments, beginning at the end of the first quarter of this year. By the end of the second quarter, shipments had increased by 15% compared to the first quarter. Egypt has emerged as the leading destination for these shipments, capturing a 20% share of the total volume. This growth highlights the dynamic nature of the grain market and Russia’s expanding influence within it.
In the iron ore market, at the opening of the week, iron ore prices fell below $100 per ton as a key policy meeting in China failed to deliver significant economic stimulus, while supply levels remained robust. The steelmaking material declined by as much as 3.5%, hitting $99.85 per ton in Singapore, with futures on track for a third consecutive day of losses.
The outcome of the Third Plenum, a twice-a-decade conclave of Communist Party officials held last week, disappointed investors. The meeting produced few measures to bolster metals demand or address the ongoing property crisis, contributing to the downward pressure on iron ore prices. This lack of decisive action from Chinese policymakers has exacerbated concerns about the strength of demand in the world’s largest steel producer, highlighting the vulnerability of the market to shifts in Chinese economic policy.
For more information on this week’s freight, supply and demand shipping trends, see the analysis sections below. You can also log in to our Newsroom page under Insights & News to stay updated with the latest reports.

SECTION 1/ FREIGHT – Freight Rates ($/t) Mixed

‘The Big Picture’ – Capesize and Panamax Bulkers and Smaller Ship Sizes

In the final week of July, the dry bulk freight market saw a continued decline in rates for Cape Brazil to North China routes, while Panamax rates for Continental Far East routes remained robust. Meanwhile, the smaller vessel size segments demonstrated resilience, indicating a stable outlook over the past month.

• Capesize vessel freight rates for shipments from Brazil to North China have decreased to $25 per ton. Despite this dip, rates remain 30% higher compared to the same week last year.
• Panamax vessel freight rates from the Continent to the Far East held levels around $43 per ton, 35% higher than those recorded a year ago.
• Supramax vessel freight rates on the Indo-ECI route remained steady at around $10 per ton, maintaining a consistent level since mid-June. These rates are still 30% higher compared to the same period last year.
• Handysize freight rates for the NOPAC Far East route have remained consistent over the past ten weeks, holding steady at approximately $36 per ton. This marks a notable 39% increase compared to rates observed one year ago.

Supply Trend Lines for Key Load Areas

• Capesize: Recent estimates of tonne-day growth mirror the previous week’s trend, still showing a decline from the peak observed in week 25. However, growth remains significantly higher than the low point recorded at the end of week 21.
• Panamax: Weekly percentage growth continues to decline with no signs of an upturn. However, the recent growth pace has not yet reached the lowest level observed since the last peak recorded four weeks ago.
• Supramax: Despite indications of an upward trend, the growth rate has shown a decline, with the latest weekly estimates recording a drop from the peak observed at the end of week 26.
• Handysize: Signs of an upward trend in the Handysize vessel segment remained unconfirmed at the end of July, as previous weekly estimates indicated a downward pace since the end of week 28.