Capacity is expected to exceed 30 million TEU at the end of third quarter and hit 30.5 million by the end of 2024

A total of 264 ships with a combined capacity of 1.6 million TEU have been delivered from shipyards during the first half of 2024, two thirds more than during the first half of last year, according to the latest update from BIMCO.

“The capacity has risen 11 percent to 29.5 million TEU, the fastest fleet growth in 15 years,” says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO. High demand for ships has contributed to keeping recycling of ships at a low level, the update added.

“Strong cargo volume growth and the rerouting of ships via the Cape of Good Hope have contributed to the recycling of only 36 ships with a combined capacity of 51k TEU.” Rasmussen says: “Despite the record, shipowners have continued to place orders for new ships. Year-to-date, a total of 63 ships with a combined 0.4 million TEU capacity have been ordered and the order book-to-fleet ratio remains high at 19 percent.”

The order book contains orders for delivery in 2028, and an average of 1.5 million TEU are scheduled for delivery each year between 2025 and 2027, the update added. “The combined capacity of 12k-17k TEU ships has grown the fastest.

This segment is now the largest within the container fleet, making up 22 percent. The segment’s capacity grew 25 percent YoY, and the growth made up nearly 50 percent of the overall fleet growth.” Ships larger than 17k TEU dominated growth during 2015-2021 but make up only 17 percent of the capacity in the order book. Shipowners’ focus has shifted from the larger ships as they are operationally limited to ports in Asia and Europe, and the 212 ships already in service cover most of these trade lanes, the update added.

“The container fleet’s capacity is expected to exceed 30 million TEU for the first time at the end of the third quarter and hit 30.5 million by the end of 2024. By the end of 2027, the current order book will add another 4.3 million TEU. As cargo volume growth is unlikely to match this expansion, we expect ship recycling to increase and temper overall fleet growth. In addition, if ships can eventually return to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, demand for ships will fall,” says Rasmussen.

Source: Logistics Update Africa