Meanwhile, in the oil market, according to JP Morgan, WTI crude oil prices may see a substantial rise to $100 per barrel in the near future due to reduced incentives for producers to increase production. The investment bank’s analysis indicates that the current equilibrium price for WTI oil stands at approximately $70 per barrel. However, they argue that a price of $60 per barrel is insufficient to stimulate adequate production levels. This perceived imbalance between production incentives and market demand could potentially create conditions favourable for a significant price surge to $100 per barrel, as reported by Forexlive.

For more information on this week’s freight supply and demand trends, see the analysis sections below. You can also log in to our Newsroom page under Insights & News to stay updated with the latest reports.​​​​​

• The VLCC MEG-China freight rates have dropped to 46 WS, marking a 13% decrease compared to rates observed one month ago.
• Suezmax freight rates for shipments from West Africa to continental Europe have remained below 100 WS since last week, marking a 13% decrease compared to levels observed a month ago. Similarly, rates on the Suez Baltic Med route have dropped to below 110 WS, reflecting a 14% decline from a month ago.
• Aframax Mediterranean freight rates have declined to approximately WS130, representing a 17% decrease compared to the previous week.

• VLCC Ras Tanura: The supply of crude tankers at VLCC Ras Tanura has dropped below 60, a significant decrease from the peak of over 80 recorded four weeks ago. Recent market indicators suggest that an increase in supply may be imminent in the coming days.
• Suezmax Wafr: The current ship count has increased to 68, up from last week’s estimate which had anticipated levels surpassing 70.
• Aframax Primorsk: For the past six weeks, the number of ships has consistently remained well below the annual average of 30, nearly 13 fewer than the peak recorded ten weeks ago. However, levels have started to show an increase during the second half of the month.
• Aframax Med Novo: Since the end of week 22, the vessel count has consistently hovered around the annual average of 10. Early estimates for the second week of July suggested a slight upward trend similar to what was observed at the beginning of the month.

• Dirty tonne days: The growth of VLCC tonne-days confirmed earlier weekly signs of a slight upward shift in the third week of July. In the Suezmax segment, early indications of a potential upward reversal at the end of June were not confirmed, leading to a downward correction in the first half of July. Meanwhile, the Aframax segment, which showed a potential upward trend peaking at the end of week 27, has since decreased, with no signs of a rebound yet.

• Panamax tonne days: Growth rates continued significantly weaker compared to the peak observed in week 13.
• For Clean MR tonne days, demand appears to have reached its lowest growth point. Both MR1 and MR2 vessel size segments are experiencing a similar weakening trend in the pace of growth.